AGP Executive Report

SCO Summit in Bishkek: Kazakhstan’s Tokayev joined Xi, Putin, Modi and others as the SCO adopted the Bishkek Declaration, pledging deeper cooperation on security, trade and technology and rejecting unilateral sanctions and “economic warfare.” Terror & security agenda: Xi urged “universal security” and crackdowns on terrorism, separatism, extremism, organized crime, drug trafficking and telecom fraud, while Modi pushed a 10-point plan calling for dismantling the “terror ecosystem” and ending double standards. Water diplomacy: Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif said water is the region’s “lifeblood” and must never be weaponised, amid the Indus Waters Treaty dispute. Kazakhstan governance: Tokayev’s nomination of Erlan Karin as vice president signals a push for political modernization and reform implementation. Industry & energy links: Kazakhstan’s role in regional connectivity and critical resources also surfaced, including talks around uranium supply and broader critical minerals cooperation.

SCO Summit, Transport & Trade: Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev used the Bishkek SCO summit to push a faster Eurasian transport-logistics framework, including digital customs, “green corridors,” a unified transit platform, and an SCO connectivity strategy to 2035, while also backing pilot industrial consortiums and a possible SCO Development Bank HQ in Kazakhstan. SCO Governance & Security: Xi Jinping urged “universal security” and fair governance; Tokayev called for an SCO ministerial conference on strategic stability to cut military risks and prevent crises spreading across markets and shipping. Oil & Energy Signals: OPEC+ seven (including Kazakhstan) raised September quotas by 188,000 bpd as voluntary cuts unwind, keeping pressure on regional energy planning. Finance for Industry: KazMunayGas issued a landmark 3.5bn yuan dim sum bond deal, creating a longer-term yuan benchmark for Kazakhstan’s corporate funding. Digital Manufacturing in Astana: China-Kazakhstan AI cooperation is powering smart-city and industrial projects in Astana, including automation tied to Chinese rail tech. Water & Infrastructure Diplomacy: Pakistan PM Shehbaz called water the region’s “lifeblood” and warned against weaponising it, while India’s Modi pressed SCO leaders to dismantle the terror ecosystem and avoid double standards. Healthcare Link: Turkistan and Yashoda Medicity signed a 3-year pact for specialist referrals and training.

SCO Summit in Bishkek: Kazakhstan is in the spotlight as Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi meet at the 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, with leaders including Kazakhstan’s Tokayev discussing security, connectivity, energy and trade amid war-driven market shocks. Transport & Logistics: Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia signed an air services agreement to boost direct passenger and cargo links, while Kazakhstan’s Middle Corridor momentum also shows up in regional talks on transport corridors. Industrial Skills: China’s Ban Mo Workshop is set to open in Almaty to train engineers on modern manufacturing equipment, aiming to match university training with Kazakhstan’s industrial partner needs. Science & Nuclear Cooperation: Kazakhstan and CERN advanced a framework for Kazakh scientists to join CERN experiments via internships and research programs, supporting the country’s push to build engineering capacity for peaceful nuclear energy. Investment Shift: Analysts say Kazakhstan has started a structural move toward a non-resource economy, with manufacturing and processing drawing more fixed-capital investment. Trade Links: Türkiye’s trade with OTS members hit new highs, with Kazakhstan the top partner in 2025, reinforcing regional supply-chain integration.

Rare Earth Deal: Lindian Resources secured exclusive access and an option to acquire 13,389 tonnes of heavy rare earth feedstock from Kazakhstan’s Aktau stockpile, with material tied to its SARECO processing plans—another step toward building magnet-grade supply. Energy & Trade Risk: Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said oil output will be cut by 3.5 million tons in 1H26 after Caspian Pipeline Consortium disruptions, while refinery plans keep shifting fuel flows, including to Russia. Investment Push: Kazakhstan launched a new investment cycle focused on manufacturing, deep processing and localization, with fast-track approvals and a growing pipeline of agreements across pharma, energy, metallurgy and agriculture. Governance Update: President Tokayev appointed longtime adviser Erlan Karin as vice president under the new constitution, alongside a proposed prime minister reappointment. Diplomacy for Industry: Kazakhstan stepped up Gulf engagement amid Hormuz shipping risks, exploring logistics and port options to expand access for Kazakh exports. Nuclear Policy: Tokayev marked 35 years since Semipalatinsk’s closure, urging renewed nuclear talks and CTBT implementation. Regional Connectivity Spotlight: As the SCO summit opens in Bishkek, coverage highlights energy, digital cooperation and transport links that matter for Kazakhstan’s trade corridors.

Nuclear & Energy Security: Kazakhstan marked the 35th anniversary of the Semipalatinsk test-site closure, with President Tokayev calling for faster entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and renewed nuclear powers’ talks, as New START expired earlier this year. Critical Minerals & Trade: India and Uzbekistan upgraded ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, setting a $5bn trade target by 2030 and expanding cooperation on uranium supplies, nuclear energy and critical minerals—an angle that matters for Kazakhstan’s own uranium and supply-chain positioning. SCO Momentum in Central Asia: Leaders are converging on Bishkek for the SCO summit’s 25th year, with Kazakhstan’s Tokayev and major partners expected to push security, connectivity and regional economic cooperation. Logistics & Shipping Routes: China and Russia are exploring an inland Irtysh–Ob river corridor through Kazakhstan toward the Arctic to reduce reliance on vulnerable maritime chokepoints—potentially reshaping regional transport planning. Tourism Industry Push: Azerbaijan’s tourism board ran roadshows in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, drawing 400+ industry participants and highlighting Caspian, health and adventure products. Uranium Market Signals: US uranium output surged in 2025, but the US still relies heavily on foreign supply—keeping Kazakhstan relevant as a key regional source.

SCO Summit Watch: Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is set to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Council of Heads of State in Bishkek on Sept 1, with leaders from 17 countries and major international bodies also joining—keeping regional trade, security and connectivity on the agenda. Constitutional Shift: Kazakhstan’s new Kurultai unicameral parliament is now in place after Aug 23 elections, reshaping how presidential power, the executive and the new legislature interact—an institutional change that could affect long-term investment predictability. EU Cooperation: Kazakhstan’s post-election political reset is being framed as a boost for Kazakhstan–EU cooperation, especially in energy, hydrogen and the Trans-Caspian transport route. Transport & Logistics: A report highlights the Irtysh River concept as a potential inland cargo corridor linking China, Kazakhstan and Russia—aimed at reducing reliance on vulnerable sea lanes. Urban Development: Almaty residents are pushing back on proposed general plan changes to 2040, warning about densification, traffic and pressure on schools and engineering networks. Industry Talent: Kazakhstan has named a robotics team for the FIRST Global Challenge 2026, focused on engineering solutions to prevent and mitigate forest fires.

SCO Summit in Bishkek: Kazakhstan President Tokayev is set to join leaders from 17 countries and multiple international organizations for the Sept 1 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit and “SCO Plus” meeting, with Xi, Putin, Modi and others on the agenda. Central Asia diplomacy with an industry angle: Modi’s Central Asia trip starts in Tashkent with talks on trade, investment, digital connectivity, energy and defence, feeding into the wider SCO agenda. Kazakhstan-China trade shift: China has overtaken Russia as Kazakhstan’s top trading partner in Jan–Jun, taking 23.2% of turnover; imports increasingly include machinery and electrical goods, while exports to China are led by ores, copper and oil. AI and robotics education: A Chinese robotics firm is bringing AI/robotics training and lab equipment to Kazakhstan’s Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, aiming to build practical tech talent. Energy and logistics watch: Reports say China and Russia are considering using the Irtysh River as an inland cargo route to reduce reliance on vulnerable sea lanes. Urban planning pressure in Almaty: Residents are challenging Almaty’s draft general plan changes, warning about densification, traffic and access to infrastructure. Nuclear policy signal: Tokayev marked the UN-backed International Day against Nuclear Tests, urging nuclear powers to resume negotiations and accelerate CTBT entry into force. Sports (local talent): Kazakhstan’s Zhubanazar won -81 kg gold at a major judo event, adding to the country’s momentum in youth engineering competitions like FIRST Global Challenge.

Kazakhstan–China Trade Shift: China has overtaken Russia as Kazakhstan’s top trading partner, taking 23.2% of foreign trade turnover in Jan–Jun 2026 (China–Kazakhstan trade $16.65bn vs Russia $13.22bn), with imports increasingly weighted to machinery and exports to China led by ores, copper and oil. Industrial Skills Push: Satbayev University will open Kazakhstan’s first “Ban Mo Workshop,” a practical engineering training center modeled on China’s vocational system, with support from the SCO technical center and a Chinese-Kazakh automotive manufacturer. Energy & Tech Signals: China exported its first domestically developed F-class heavy-duty gas turbine (50MW G50) to Kazakhstan, part of a Nov 2025 order for three units. Oil Supply Pressure: Kazakhstan is navigating Russian-linked refining and export arrangements as some refineries reportedly hesitate over secondary sanctions risk while domestic demand stays high. Governance & Digital Economy: Kazakhstan’s Kurultai leadership was elected, while SCO-driven smart tech is showcased via Astana’s automated driverless light rail using big data and IoT. SCO Summit Context: Bishkek hosts the SCO summit Aug 31–Sep 1, with major leader meetings expected to shape regional energy, connectivity and digital cooperation.

Investment & Industry Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Germany met in Berlin at the 17th Kazakhstan-German Business Council for Strategic Cooperation, with German firms signaling interest in new joint projects in industry, energy, transport and logistics, mechanical engineering, and critical materials processing. Agri-Processing & Exports: Kazakhstan and Belgium discussed expanding a flax processing joint venture after record flax shipments—309,500 tons from Sep 2025 to May 2026—supporting a shift from raw supply to value-added production. Engineering Skills for Industry: Satbayev University is set to open Kazakhstan’s first Ban Mo Workshop, a practical engineering training center tied to SCO support and a Chinese-Kazakh automotive partner, aimed at hands-on industrial experience. Grain Output: Kazakhstan reports 7.7 mln tons of grain harvested so far, with over 1 mln tons delivered to licensed facilities and quality monitoring ongoing. Energy & Tech: China shipped its first domestically developed F-class heavy-duty gas turbine for overseas use to Kazakhstan, part of a 2025 order for power generation. Policy & Digital Governance: President Tokayev backed a plan to prohibit social media registration for children under 16, stressing enforceable mechanisms and faster work on energy tech sustainability and online platform legislation. Regional Connectivity: Middle Corridor operators are urged to cut delays through coordinated modernization across ports, rail links and digital tools. SCO Momentum: Xi Jinping is expected to attend the SCO summit in Bishkek (Aug 31–Sep 1), with the event framed as a push for regional stability and economic integration.

Kurultai & Digital Governance: President Tokayev backed a legislative push to ban social media registration for children under 16, stressing the law must come with enforceable mechanisms and calling for faster rules on energy tech resilience, online platforms, and media oversight. Space Skills for Industry: The OTS Secretary General highlighted growing Turkic space cooperation at Türkiye’s Space Camp in İzmir, pointing to practical projects like cube satellites and urging youth toward science, engineering, and space research. Energy Equipment Supply: China shipped its first domestically developed F-class heavy-duty gas turbine for overseas use to Kazakhstan, tied to a power project order and including lifecycle services and locally customized components. SCO Momentum for Connectivity: Kazakhstan is set to participate in the SCO summit in Bishkek (Sept 1), with a focus on regional stability, economic integration, transport links, and digitalization. Pharma Production Upswing: Kazakhstan’s pharmaceutical output rose 37% over three years, with domestic production expanding and procurement mechanisms being developed to support capacity and new launches. Trade & Logistics Finance: The ADB approved a $400m facility to modernize border crossing points across CAREC, aiming to cut transport and logistics costs—directly relevant for Kazakhstan’s transit-driven industry. Bilateral Business Boost: Cyprus’ presidential visit to Kazakhstan was framed as a new push for cooperation in shipping, transport, energy, tech, cybersecurity, health, and tourism.

Samruk Kazyna Push for Local Industry: Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund reported January–July 2026 revenue of 12.5 trillion tenge and net profit above target, while boosting procurement from domestic producers via new supplier agreements and faster payments. Education for the Digital Economy: President Tokayev told teachers Kazakhstan must build quality schools, reduce teacher bureaucracy, and shift youth training toward digital-economy skills rather than grievance-heavy narratives. Trade Diversification with South Korea: Kazakhstan hosted a Kazakhstan–Korea business forum in Almaty to expand beyond commodity exports, with B2B meetings aimed at higher-value agricultural, food, and industrial products. Air Connectivity Upgrade: Kazakhstan expanded permitted flights with Saudi Arabia (28 to 70 per week) and rolled out more biometric and analytics tools to speed border and aviation services. Energy Security via Middle Corridor: Commentary highlights how Kazakhstan’s uranium flows increasingly rely on the Trans-Caspian route through Azerbaijan and Georgia to reach Western customers. Agriculture Export Constraints: An Irish buyer seeks up to 300 pedigree Hereford heifers from Kazakhstan, but import eligibility is restricted due to bluetongue-related county bans. Cultural Industry Outreach: Kazakhstan showcased contemporary literature and heritage at a national pavilion event in Guangzhou, supporting translations of classic works.

Automotive Milestone: Škoda Octavia marks 30 years since modern series production began in 1996, with the current fourth generation made in Kazakhstan (Kostanay) alongside Czech plants. Regional Infrastructure: Karaganda region says 65 social projects were built using recovered assets, including healthcare facilities and drinking-water utilities. Creative Industries: Kazakh animation “KÖLEÑKE” wins an international horror animation award in Portland, with other Qazaqanimation titles also selected for the main program. Trade & Logistics (Middle Corridor): Singapore and Kazakhstan sign an MoU to strengthen digital trade and logistics connectivity along the Middle Corridor, aiming to boost supply-chain resilience. Energy & Industry Outlook: Kazakhstan’s government approves 2027–2029 socioeconomic forecast and draft budget, projecting average real GDP growth above 5% driven by manufacturing, agriculture, construction, transport, and other non-oil sectors. Transport Decarbonization: Kazakhstan launches a CIS’s first solar-powered off-grid EV charging station in Astana, with plans to replicate along highways and at industrial sites. AI & Governance: Kazakhstan moves to roll out AI tools across transport networks, linking digitalization to smarter operations. Geopolitics & Security: CSTO plans autumn exercises starting in Kazakhstan that include protecting facilities from drones. SCO Focus: Xi Jinping confirms attendance at the SCO summit in Bishkek (Aug 30–Sept 3), with Kazakhstan’s Tokayev already set to attend key events.

Oil & Shipping Pressure: Ukraine’s strikes on Russian logistics and refineries keep squeezing exports, with a Reuters report saying Lukoil’s NORSI refinery in Nizhny Novgorod halted processing after a drone attack. Kazakhstan Energy Pivot: Kazakhstan is cutting its 2026 oil output plan after CPC disruptions and is pushing to refine more at home, including plans for the Condensat refinery to process Russian crude and ship up to 70% of gasoline/diesel back to Russia. Fuel Market Spillovers: Kazakhstan’s gasoline exporters are reportedly avoiding Russia due to settlement and sanctions risks, while analysts warn Russia’s fuel crunch could raise harvest costs and inflation pressures for Kazakhstan’s wheat sector. EV & Green Infrastructure: Astana opened the CIS’s first autonomous solar-powered EV charging station, designed to scale along highways and industrial sites. AI & Digital Economy: Kazakhstan approved an action plan to expand AI across education, healthcare, transport and public services through 2029. Trade & Connectivity: Kazakhstan and Singapore signed deals on sustainable water management, digitalization and Middle Corridor cooperation, while Kazakhstan also consults on using the Baku–Supsa route for oil exports. Regional Industry & Finance: VTB said it will support Ozon sellers hit by warehouse and logistics attacks, and AM Best affirmed Centras Life’s ratings in Kazakhstan.

AI for Energy & Geology: Kazakhstan is rolling out AI to guide multimillion-dollar drilling and improve decision-making across the oil and power chain, including digital models and better electricity forecasting. Rural Education Push: The government says it has built over 1,100 schools in five years and is constructing 49 more rural schools in 2026, with new teacher incentives and upgrades to emergency and three-shift facilities. Border & Logistics Modernization: The Asian Development Bank plans up to $400m for a regional facility to modernize border crossing points across CAREC, cutting freight delays via digitalization and “single window” systems. Oil Refining Workarounds: Kazakhstan’s Kondensat refinery will process Russian crude by rail, keeping up to 30% of products for Kazakhstan and sending about 70% back to Russia amid fuel shortages. Transport Safety & Industry Tech: Kazakhstan is also expanding AI tools across transport networks and adding a new Caspian Sea rescue vessel to strengthen emergency response capacity. Trade & Food Safety: Kazakhstan and the EU are deepening food safety cooperation, aiming to support export compliance for products like honey and aquaculture.

Caspian Safety Upgrade: Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations took delivery of a DAMEN Fast Crew Supplier 2710 to speed search-and-rescue and oil-spill response in the Caspian as navigation conditions worsen. Energy Security & Sanctions Risk: Kazakhstan confirmed the Kondensat refinery will process Russian crude by rail, keeping 30% of gasoline/diesel for domestic needs and exporting 70% back to Russia, with the owner said to be off sanctions lists. Refining Disruptions: A voltage drop briefly hit the Shymkent Oil Refinery, but output stayed on track after power was restored; separately, a fire at the Atyrau refinery was extinguished with no injuries. Power Grid Tensions: The fallout from the Aug. 14 blackout continues, with Kazakhstan saying the trigger was the shutdown of Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul HPP units, while a final commission review is pending. AI for Transport: Kazakhstan is rolling out AI tools to forecast airline routes and improve transport planning, aiming to strengthen its role as a regional logistics hub. Digital Payments Shift: Virtual cards now lead among active users, and QR payments have overtaken card payments at POS terminals, signaling a move toward smartphone-first retail payments. Robotics Spotlight: Kazakhstan’s BULAN team won a national stage and then earned a special award at ABU Robocon 2026 in Hong Kong, marking a return after a seven-year gap.

Oil Export Routes: Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov backed the Baku–Supsa pipeline as a “vital alternative” after CPC attacks, saying Kazakhstan lost about 3.5 million tons and could redirect volumes via Aktau and the pipeline. Oil Output Cuts: Kazakhstan will lower its 2026 oil production target to 96mn tons, down from 98mn, citing CPC drone attacks and postponed maintenance. Transit Disruption: Kazakh oil transit via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline will stay suspended for the next three months, with Transneft showing zero volumes in the received plans. Refining Moves: Kazakhstan’s Kondensat refinery will start processing Russian crude after an official request, with 30% of products sent back to Russia. Gas & Power Reliability: After a southern blackout, the PM ordered measures to prevent repeat outages; plans include new generation (including a 1,000 MW combined-cycle plant in Turkestan) and grid upgrades. Industrial Planning: Kazakhstan is assessing potential sites for a new oil refinery, with feasibility work led by Samruk-Kazyna and a final location decision expected before year-end. Energy Forecasts: The government will review the 2027–2029 socioeconomic forecast and heating-season preparations, including repairs across power plants and grid modernization. Trade & Growth Outlook: Kazakhstan’s baseline forecast points to 5%+ average real GDP growth in 2027–2029, led by non-oil processing, construction, and logistics.