AGP Executive Report

Oil & Energy Policy: OPEC+ (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) agreed to raise August quotas by 188,000 bpd, continuing the gradual unwind of 2023 voluntary cuts as Strait of Hormuz shipments recover; the group stressed flexibility to pause or reverse increases and to compensate any overproduction since Jan 2024. Fuel Security & Enforcement: Kazakhstan reported 61 thwarted fuel-smuggling attempts at the border in two days, with hidden tanks and canisters seized; since the start of the year, 593 illegal export attempts were stopped (over 40,000 liters), while authorities plan to extend the gasoline/diesel export ban. Trade & Logistics: Freight along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route rose 3.5x over five years, supported by port upgrades (Aktau, Kuryk) and a digital “single-window” monitoring system, with a target of 300,000 TEU by 2029. Water & Industry Resilience: Japan pledged $3m via UNDP to help Kazakhstan address Caspian Sea water-level decline, funding monitoring and sustainable water management to protect shipping and ecosystems. Diplomacy for Business: Armenia and Kazakhstan approved a reciprocal land-swap for new embassy buildings, signaling continued efforts to strengthen ties that can support cross-border cooperation.

Constitutional Reset: Kazakhstan’s new Constitution took effect, launching political reforms including a Vice President post and a smaller Parliament with a snap election set for Aug. 23. Fuel Market Control: Mobile groups are patrolling border highways around the clock to stop illegal fuel exports; authorities also plan to extend the gasoline export ban through May 2027 to protect the domestic market. Critical Minerals Value-Add: EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso stressed Kazakhstan must expand domestic processing of critical raw materials, backed by calls for more transparency and a stable regulatory framework for investors. EBRD Financing for Processing: EBRD is backing Kazakhstan’s move up the minerals value chain, including a €255m loan and a $300m gold processing project to build local capacity. Digital Push: Kazakhstan showcased digital initiatives in Beijing, including progress toward a digital state and a Data Center Valley project in Ekibastuz. Caspian Water Support: Japan pledged about $3m via UNDP to help Kazakhstan tackle Caspian Sea water decline, focusing on monitoring and regional water management. Cyber Threat Watch: Kaspersky named the Armored Likho group targeting government and power-sector organizations in Kazakhstan with BusySnake Stealer phishing campaigns. U.S.-Kazakhstan Ties: Tokayev sent congratulations to Trump on America’s 250th anniversary, while Kazakhstan-Georgia talks highlighted plans to boost oil exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

Digital Connectivity: Kazakhstan showcased digital initiatives in Beijing, including progress on a digital state and a Data Center Valley project in Ekibastuz, as Central Asia–China partners pushed standards and cooperation. Pharma & Trade: Kazakhstan and India agreed to expand pharmaceutical cooperation, while talks with Gujarat’s leadership also targeted agro-industrial supplies and joint investment, including interest from Adani Group in Ekibastuz infrastructure and a modern data center. Caspian Water Security: Japan pledged a 465 million yen (about $3m) UNDP grant to help Kazakhstan tackle Caspian Sea water decline, warning of risks to logistics and ecosystems. Mining Value-Add: The EBRD backed Kazakhstan’s first large-scale refractory gold ore processing facility with a €255m loan, aiming to unlock hard-to-process reserves and boost domestic processing. Cybersecurity: A new phishing campaign by Armored Likho targeted government agencies and Russia’s power sector, with activity reported in Kazakhstan. Logistics & Connectivity: Middle Corridor coverage highlighted how Caspian crossings and the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars rail link are gaining importance amid regional disruptions. Energy & Industry: Ukraine said it disabled 43% of Russia’s refining capacity, feeding broader fuel pressure across the region. Investment Climate: Tokayev convened the Foreign Investors Council in Astana, tying constitutional reforms to an AI and digitalization push for investment.

Investment & Digital Economy: Tokayev chaired the 38th Foreign Investors Council in Astana, pitching Kazakhstan’s new constitutional reforms and a push into AI, digitalization, and diversification as proof of stability for investors. Trade & Connectivity: Almaty hosted the 21st Kazakhstan–China Commodity Exhibition with nearly 500 booths and talks aimed at expanding bilateral trade and high-tech projects. Energy & Water Security: Japan pledged about $3m via UNDP to help Kazakhstan tackle Caspian Sea water decline, focusing on monitoring and sustainable use. Mining & Value-Added Processing: EBRD backed a up-to-$300m loan for Solidcore Resources’ Ertis hydrometallurgical complex in Pavlodar to boost domestic gold processing and cut reliance on external services. Finance & Entrepreneurship: Astana’s Global Businesswomen Council announced the G-Index Institute to build research and analytics for women’s entrepreneurship, citing women’s large role in SMEs. Cyber & Critical Infrastructure: Kaspersky flagged “Armored Likho” cyber activity targeting government agencies and the electric power sector across Russia and Kazakhstan. Aviation Fuel Pressure: Reuters reported Russia is seeking jet fuel imports routed via South Korea, underscoring ongoing refinery disruption. Security/Policy Watch: Kazakhstan drafted an order to extend gasoline export bans into May 2027, with public discussion running through July 21. Tech & Crypto Infrastructure: Solana-linked entities signed on to support Kazakhstan’s $6bn Alatau City crypto and smart-city ambition. Disaster Alert: A 4.5 quake hit near Taraz, with light tremors reported locally.

Mining & Finance: EBRD is backing Solidcore Resources’ Ertis hydrometallurgical complex in Pavlodar with up to $300m, targeting up to 278.5 kt of gold concentrate processing and higher value-added output using pressure oxidation. Energy Policy: Kazakhstan is drafting an extension of its gasoline and diesel export ban to May 2027, with a public discussion window running until July 21. Digital & AI Investment: Kazakhstan is expanding its high-tech agenda via the Foreign Investors’ Council, spotlighting AI, digital infrastructure, space tech, and Alatau City’s innovation push. Tech & Cybersecurity: New malware campaigns are hitting macOS users via fake Maccy clipboard apps (PamStealer), while a separate report flags “Armored Likho” targeting government and power sectors across Russia and Kazakhstan. Aviation & Logistics: Azerbaijan Airlines launches direct flights to Atyrau and Aktobe, boosting connectivity for western Kazakhstan’s oil and industrial hubs. Regional Trade & Industry: Kazakhstan and the U.S. are discussing deeper economic cooperation around investment, technology transfer, and joint manufacturing.

Digital & Education Cooperation: Al-Farabi Kazakh National University hosted an EU monitoring visit for the ERASMUS+ CBHE LESLIE project, with Kazakhstan partners reporting progress on land management, environment and solid waste work across Central Asia. Cross-border Academic Links: LESLIE also presented at the Spain–Uzbekistan University Forum in Madrid, pushing mobility and institutional partnerships. Industrial Finance & Infrastructure: President Tokayev met the Islamic Development Bank chief; IDB financing in Kazakhstan tops $4.2bn, with major support flagged for water infrastructure, transport connectivity and industrial zones. Investment & Tech Push: Tokayev met the US Chamber of Commerce senior vice president, discussing critical minerals, energy, digital infrastructure, AI, transport and agriculture, while also highlighting investor-right protections and a new digital investment platform. Digital Economy Partnerships: VEON and Mastercard plan to expand inclusive digital financial services in Kazakhstan and the region, and VEON reaffirmed Digital Qazaqstan progress including Direct to Cell rollout plans. Energy & Trade Context: OPEC+ is expected to approve another August output quota hike, while Kazakhstan’s role in the group is noted amid shifting oil flows. Critical Minerals Watch: A rare-earth cooperation push between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is framed as a strategic move in the global rare earth race.

Digital Infrastructure Push: President Tokayev met VEON CEO Kaan Terzioglu as the telecom group pledged an extra $1bn investment and plans to double its Kazakhstan footprint, including modern computing, cloud services and Direct-to-Cell coverage. Finance & Development: Tokayev also met EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso, highlighting the bank’s 11bn euros in past funding and discussing a new framework to back Kazakhstan’s reforms and sustainable growth. Nuclear & Industry Modernization: Tokayev and Cameco CEO discussed uranium-industry cooperation and the goal of building a full domestic nuclear fuel cycle. Trade & Logistics: AD Ports Group reiterated long-term interest in Caspian transit and port infrastructure for the Middle Corridor, with focus on cargo and grain terminals. Energy Transition: Kazakhstan expects to fully meet electricity demand by early 2027 and move to surplus by 2029, including a planned doubling of renewables capacity. Crypto Regulation: Kazakhstan’s central bank issued its first license for crypto exchange operations under updated digital-asset rules, enabling trading, storage and swaps beyond the Astana hub. Maritime/Transit Markets: SOCAR Trading began delivering Uzbek naphtha to international markets via the Black Sea, expanding regional logistics capacity. Industrial Zones Funding: The Islamic Development Bank backed Kazakhstan’s economic and industrial zones agenda with a $1.3bn financing package. AI in Practice: Tokayev framed AI as a driver of investment policy and faster public services, while Kazakhstan’s Alatau City project is set to test new tech and autonomous systems.

Fuel Security Pressure: Kyrgyzstan asked Kazakhstan and other neighbors (Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan) to help stabilize fuel supplies as Russian shortages worsen after Ukraine drone strikes on refineries. Oil & Trade Links: Kazakhstan agreed to supply Russia with 50,000 tons of gasoline as humanitarian aid in July-August, while Russia also started seaborne petrol imports from India to ease shortages. Rail & Middle Corridor Industry: Alstom said it invested €200m in Kazakhstan from 2010-2023 and plans a further €50m by 2027 for a locomotive plant in Astana and depot upgrades, aiming to strengthen Middle Corridor freight. Aviation & Connectivity: President Tokayev met Air Astana CEO; the airline plans Boeing 787 deliveries in 2026-2027 and orders for A320neo/A321neo plus more 787-9s to expand routes and improve service. Agriculture Output Boost: Kazakhstan’s agricultural cooperatives grew to 4,894 by late 2025, with output value reaching 117.6bn tenge and sales up 22.2% year-on-year. Investment Momentum: EBRD expects Kazakhstan investments to exceed €1.3bn this year, with talks also covering transport, digitalization, AI, and industrial infrastructure. Critical Minerals & Processing: A report highlights how Kazakhstan’s Ulba Metallurgical Plant supports uranium fuel and broader nuclear supply, underscoring Central Asia’s push to secure processing capacity. AI Supply Chain Push: Kazakhstan joined the U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative, aiming to attract high-tech investment and expand critical-minerals processing and AI-related manufacturing.

Transport & Logistics Finance: The Islamic Development Bank signed an MoU for up to $1.4bn to help prepare Kazakhstan’s Kyzylorda–Saksaulsk road corridor, positioning the country as a key Asia–Europe transit hub. World Bank Partnership: Kazakhstan and the World Bank highlighted 50+ projects worth $8bn across transport, digitalization, green tech and education, with talks also touching oil and local content. Construction Regulation: Kazakhstan’s new Construction Code took effect July 1, aiming to tighten safety, modernize oversight, and digitize the urban planning cadaster. AI & Critical Tech: Kazakhstan joined the U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative, targeting trusted AI infrastructure and high-value manufacturing tied to critical minerals. Energy & Fuel Pressure (Regional): Russia confirmed talks to import gasoline to stabilize shortages, while Kazakhstan’s energy authorities reiterated sufficient reserves amid regional volatility. Aviation Connectivity: FlyArystan launched Almaty–Xi’an service, and AZAL added direct flights to Atyrau and Aktobe, boosting business and tourism links. Trade & Investment Push: Government measures focus on higher incomes, debt relief and macro stability, alongside plans for new industrial facilities. Food Security: Azerbaijan formally joined the Islamic Organization for Food Security, with a flag-raising ceremony in Astana. Governance & Oversight: Finland’s first prison term for sanctions evasion involving truck exports to Russia underscores tighter compliance risks for regional logistics.

Investment Push: President Tokayev says Kazakhstan is entering a new investment cycle to drive diversification, with FDI up 14% to over $20B and capital flowing into manufacturing, transport & logistics, digital infrastructure, and finance. Digital State: He also urged faster rollout of a fully digital state, citing the Digital Code, AI law, and new constitutional protections for personal data. Industrial Expansion: Kazakhstan plans to launch 200+ new production facilities in two years, targeting about $6.2B in investment and 20,000 additional jobs, building on 540 industrial projects already delivered. Energy & Utilities Modernization: Tokayev highlighted a major national push to upgrade energy, engineering, and transport and move from “cosmetic” repairs to full reconstruction, with over 1T tenge allocated this year. Investor Safety: Kazakhstan ranks Central Asia’s safest for investors in the GIRRI index (53rd globally). Water Skills with China: Kazakhstan and China will jointly train water industry specialists, including a new program and a Taraz training center. Aviation Rules: New amendments set a legal framework for air taxis and drones, including advanced air mobility and eVTOL operations. Jobs Data: Q1 stats show employment rising in industry, construction, manufacturing, healthcare, and social services.

Industrial Push: Tokayev says Kazakhstan will launch 200+ new production facilities in two years, with about $6.2B in investments, creating 20,000 more jobs and building out sectors from autos and appliances to freight wagons and construction materials. Energy & Utilities Modernization: The government is funding a major energy and utilities upgrade, with over 1T tenge allocated this year, shifting from “facade” repairs to full reconstruction of critical infrastructure. Nuclear & Power Planning: Tokayev confirms construction of the first Balkhash NPP will start next year with Rosatom, framing it as energy sovereignty for a future digital economy. Renewables Buildout: Masdar-led wind expansion moves ahead in Zhambyl: a 1GW project with 300MW/600MWh storage, targeting operations in Q3 2029. Aviation Rules for Drones & Air Taxis: Kazakhstan adopted a new legal framework for urban air mobility, eVTOL and vertiports, updating aviation and transport technology regulation. U.S. Deal-Making Momentum: At an Astana roundtable, U.S. and Kazakh leaders highlighted trade above $5B, top-tier U.S. investment status, and deeper cooperation in finance, digital tech and AI. Logistics Growth: Middle Corridor cargo volumes reportedly rose fivefold over six years, supporting Kazakhstan’s push to strengthen aviation fuel supply and transport infrastructure. Regional Water Risk: Azerbaijan and neighbors discuss a framework to monitor the shrinking Caspian Sea, warning of impacts on ports, shipping and offshore oil and gas. Crypto Payments Expansion: SQRIL expands stablecoin-to-QR payments into Kazakhstan and Central Asia, aiming to replace card-based rails with cheaper local acceptance.

Agri-Protection: Kazakhstan imposed a temporary ban on importing fresh and chilled tomatoes from outside the EAEU (22–30 June 2026) to shield domestic greenhouse and farm producers, while keeping EAEU-origin imports and transit shipments open. Strategic Partnership (Georgia): Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov and Georgian PM Irakli Kobakhidze agreed to implement Tokayev’s accords, pushing trade, investment, transport/logistics, energy and digital cooperation, with a strategic partnership statement and AI/digitalization memoranda. Energy & Industry (Renewables): Construction started on a Masdar-led 1 GW wind farm in Zhambyl with 600 MWh battery storage (about $1.4bn), aimed at easing southern power shortages and cutting emissions. Utilities Upgrade: Kazakhstan will channel 27.3 bln tenge into renewing water and heating networks across six regions, targeting high-wear systems and reducing losses. Nuclear Safety: Kazakhstan and Spain expanded cooperation on nuclear safety and peaceful nuclear development, including coordination via the IAEA. Mining & Courts: The case over the death of seven miners at Kazakhmys’ “Zhomart” mine has moved to court, with a main hearing set for July 3. EU Energy Role: Eurostat data shows Kazakhstan as the EU’s third-largest crude oil supplier and fourth-largest coal source in Q1 2026. Middle Corridor Push: Kazakhstan and Georgia highlighted growth on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, including container traffic and tariff/digitalization coordination.

Renewables & Grid Modernization: Masdar broke ground on a $1.4bn, 1 GW wind farm in Kazakhstan’s Zhambyl region, paired with a 600 MWh battery storage system, plus 400+ km of transmission lines—aimed at cutting emissions and easing southern power shortages. AI + Data Centers: Masdar also signed a roadmap with Kazakhstan’s digital ministry to support a 24/7 clean-energy push for AI and data-center infrastructure, while Firebird is set to join the planned “data center valley” in Pavlodar. Industrial Tech: Astel and Advantech agreed to advance Industrial IoT in Kazakhstan, targeting automation and edge analytics for key sectors. Cross-Border Logistics: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan will replace paper permits with an electronic permit system for international road freight starting in 2027, with 6,000 e-permits exchanged in 2026. Energy Security Watch: Russia’s refinery damage is driving gasoline shortages and prompting requests to Kazakhstan for AI-92 supplies. Bilateral Industry Ties: Kazakhstan held talks with Germany on deeper industrial and technology cooperation, including production localization models from agricultural machinery.

Light Industry Growth: Kazakhstan’s leather and related products output jumped 36% in Jan–May 2026, led by Almaty region (T2.4bn, 35% of total), with travel accessories/saddlery up 47.6% and footwear up 39.9%. Industrial Gases & Petrochem: Air Liquide is investing €70m in Atyrau to supply nitrogen and compressed dry air for Silleno’s polyethylene plant, with two large units planned to commission by end-2028. AI Supply Chains: Kazakhstan formally joined the US-led Pax Silica initiative, positioning itself for trusted AI infrastructure and critical-minerals/semiconductor/data-center cooperation. Mining & Geopolitics: A New York Times investigation claims US-backed Kazakhstan tungsten deal involvement could financially benefit Trump and Lutnick family-linked investors, adding political risk to critical-minerals projects. Transport & Logistics: With fuel shortages hitting Russian freight, carriers are rerouting some trucks through Kazakhstan, though border customs control is flagged as a potential bottleneck. Trade Connectivity: China is backing a Caspian Sea route to Europe via Kazakhstan/Aktau–Baku–Georgia, aiming to cut transit time versus ocean shipping. Energy & Climate Context: Heatwave and wildfire risks are rising across Central Asia and beyond, while global energy flows keep adjusting to major disruptions.

Creative Industries: Pavlodar region showcased locally made crafts and IT projects at an Astana fair, with organizers reporting over 1 million tenge in sales on day one. AI & Supply Chains: Kazakhstan joined the US-led Pax Silica initiative and signed the AI Opportunity Partnership in Washington, aiming to attract investment, technology transfer, and build high-tech capacity. Transport & Logistics: Kazakhstan reopened modernized Ridder and Shemonaikha railway stations in East Kazakhstan, part of a wider upgrade program to improve passenger infrastructure. Middle Corridor: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia are pushing a unified long-term tariff model for the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, with port expansion and dredging plans to boost containerized cargo. Trade Digitalization: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan agreed to fully move from paper to electronic international road transport permits, starting next year. Water Security: A global look at safe drinking water highlights how clean-water access remains out of reach for billions, underscoring the stakes for Central Asia’s infrastructure and monitoring. Tech Payments: SQRIL expanded its stablecoin-to-QR payments into Central Asia, targeting lower fees and wider merchant acceptance.

EU-Kazakhstan Deals: President Tokayev’s Brussels visit wrapped with strategic documents and 30 commercial agreements worth about €10B, including a €7.3B Air Astana–Airbus aircraft contract and a €967M Alstom locomotive servicing deal, as Kazakhstan pushes rare-earth supply and “cutting edge” projects for Europe. AI & Supply Chains: Kazakhstan signed onto the US-led Pax Silica initiative, joining a 35-country push for “trusted” AI supply chains; the summit also backed an AI Opportunity joint statement aimed at semiconductors, critical minerals, and advanced manufacturing. Transport Upgrade: East Kazakhstan reopened two fully modernized railway stations—Ridder and Shemonaikha—under a national program to upgrade 124 stations, with 30 stations targeted for commissioning by July 1. Space for Risk Monitoring: Kazakhstan joined China and Central Asian partners in signing the “Tianwu Constellation” plan for a five-satellite remote-sensing network to track earthquakes, glacial floods, and agricultural pests. Energy & Environment Watch: World Bank data says global gas flaring hit a six-year high in 2025, rising to 167B cubic metres and costing about $54B—fuel waste that keeps growing. Land Governance: Almaty reclaimed 14.68 ha of unused commercial-agriculture land after court action, saying limited work without crops doesn’t count as proper use.