AGP Executive Report

Road & Infrastructure: Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport says 2026 major repairs will hit 25 road projects totaling 321 km, with work focused on structural layers, while medium-level repairs continue across 3,700 km on 124 highways. Nuclear & Power: Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant is moving forward: active Balkhash NPP construction is slated to begin in 2027, and two intergovernmental agreements on construction and financing are expected during Putin’s Astana visit; meanwhile, Tokayev awarded IAEA chief Rafael Grossi the Dostyq Order for nuclear cooperation. Eurasian Energy & Diplomacy: Putin’s state visit to Kazakhstan (May 27–29) spotlights trade, energy, and regional integration, with talks also tied to nuclear cooperation and broader industrial projects. Digital Connectivity for Industry: South Korea’s national security adviser Wi Sung-lac is set to meet Kazakh officials on energy supply chains ahead of a Korea–Central Asia summit, while CMI is planning a new Central Asia-to-Hong Kong submarine cable connection route via Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to boost data links for business. Trade & Logistics: Kazakhstan-Russia trade remains central, with Russia ranking as a top partner and imports rising sharply in Q1 2026, including big jumps in uranium and gas supplies. Education Access: Kozybayev University upgraded its library with assistive tech that converts printed text into audio for students with visual impairments.

Nuclear & Energy Diplomacy: Putin’s state visit to Kazakhstan (May 27-29) is set to center on trade, energy and Eurasian integration, with two intergovernmental agreements for Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant prepared for the trip. Autonomous Mobility: Kazakhstan plans a driverless taxi pilot in the second half of 2026, using a regulatory sandbox and work by Yandex Qazaqstan and inDrive, with Almaty expected as the main launch city. Digital Connectivity: China Mobile International (CMI) is pursuing a new Central Asia-to-Hong Kong submarine cable gateway via Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to boost secure, high-bandwidth routes. Trade Flows: Kazakhstan-Russia trade turnover rose 16% in Q1 2026 to $6.46bn, driven by imports of uranium, gas and gold. Water for Agriculture: Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan agreed summer releases from the Bahri Tojik reservoir to support irrigation in Turkestan region. Logistics Expansion: Rohlig SUUS Logistics opened a Uzbekistan subsidiary to expand road, rail, sea/air freight, warehousing and customs services. Tech Event: Media accreditation opened for Astana’s AI & Digital Bridge 2026 (Oct 1-3).

Russia-Kazakhstan Summit Prep: Ahead of Vladimir Putin’s state visit, Moscow is pushing a “mutual respect and trust” message and tying it to energy, digital cooperation, and major joint projects—while also signaling nuclear and regional agenda items. Aviation Links: AZAL will launch Shymkent–Baku flights from June 16 (twice weekly), with KMG-Aero providing “wing-to-wing” refueling at Shymkent. Nuclear Focus: IAEA chief Rafael Grossi says Kazakhstan is a key partner on nuclear safety, as Kazakhstan continues building out its nuclear program and cooperation framework. Transport & Trade: Kazakhstan’s rail operator KTZ is planning bigger China–Europe capacity, including more Caspian Sea shipping. Smart City Push: A2Z Drone Delivery is partnering with Alatau Advance Air Group for Kazakhstan’s Alatau City UAM test push—drones and air taxis built into the city plan from the start. Energy Volatility Context: Global oil markets are still reacting to Hormuz disruption and falling inventories, keeping regional energy decisions in the spotlight.

Putin’s Kazakhstan Trip: Kremlin says Vladimir Putin’s second state visit to Astana underlines “unprecedented” ties, with deals expected across energy, finance, healthcare and tourism—plus a nuclear power framework and expanded oil transshipment via Kazakhstan. Nuclear Cooperation: President Tokayev met IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, backing nuclear safety and a roadmap to 2036; Kazakhstan also signaled it could help resolve Iran’s nuclear situation if agreements are in place. Skills Push: Kazakhstan plans 89,457 state scholarship grants for 2026–27, prioritizing engineering, IT and agriculture. Green Metals: Aktobe is moving ahead with a $100m “green” copper project using scrap, targeting 25,000 tons of refined copper from 2027. Tourism Drive: A new tourism coordination council approved an action plan through 2029, aiming to modernize infrastructure and boost eco/mountain/nature travel. Regional Trade Shift: Bloomberg reports KTZ is expanding capacity as Middle East tensions push more China–Europe cargo onto the Middle Corridor. Fuel Market Watch: Kazakhstan’s AI-92/diesel price freeze has ended, with cautious retail increases and cross-border demand risks.

Agro-Industry Push: Northern Kazakhstan is set to commission an alfalfa deep-processing plant this August, targeting up to 60,000 tons/year of granulated alfalfa for domestic use plus exports to China and Central Asia—with construction on a 3-hectare site and German equipment already delivered. Urban Infrastructure & Social Services: President Tokayev met Astana Mayor Zhenis Kassymbek as the capital reports KZT 588bn in fixed-capital investment (+9.1% y/y) and a fully launched LRT light rail; the city also plans 12 more schools this academic year and new healthcare facilities by 2028. Energy & Legal Risk: Kazakhstan says it will not enforce an AIFC court decision allowing Naftogaz to seize $1.4bn in Gazprom assets, arguing the ruling’s reach is limited. Pharma Reform: Kazakhstan is preparing faster medicine approvals for drugs already cleared by the FDA/EMA, aiming for market access in as little as 15 days. Cyber Readiness: A new Kaznet Cyber Threat Radar initiative is highlighted as an early-warning layer for Kazakhstan’s digital ecosystem.

Geopolitics & Energy Diplomacy: The Iran track is getting shakier as Tehran warns talks with the US could collapse, while Donald Trump pushes a new condition: any Iran deal should also bring Muslim-majority states into the Abraham Accords. Corporate Moves: Nature Energy (linked to Kazakh entrepreneur Shakhmurat Mutalip) bought 39.3% of ERG, reshuffling major stakes in the mining group. AI Push in Government: Kazakhstan is rolling AI agents into top state bodies and building a Data Center Valley for global AI firms, with Ekibastuz picked as the main site. Transport & Infrastructure: Astana reports 12 new schools this year and continued LRT development; Kazakhstan Temir Zholy says rail modernization and AI coordination are cutting diagnostic times sharply. Agriculture Oversight: Diesel for farmers now uses PIN codes and color-coded fuel, with misuse down 21%. Health & Tourism: A new five-star Issyk-Kul wellness resort is under construction for a November opening.

Oil & OPEC+: OPEC+ is expected to lift its July output target by about 188,000 bpd at its June 7 meeting, despite ongoing disruption tied to the Iran war. Pharma Push: Kazakhstan approved a 32.5 bln tenge full-cycle biopharmaceutical complex in the Almaty region, backed by private investment, aiming for commissioning in 2031 and full capacity by 2032. Drug Crackdown: A Kazakh couple suspected of synthetic drug production was detained in Georgia, with the husband linked to mephedrone production in Kazakhstan’s Almaty region and the wife accused of financing. Aviation & Cities: Kazakhstan is moving ahead on air taxis and urban air mobility, with eVTOL testing in Alatau City and new rules for launch and infrastructure. Energy & Industry Links: Kazakhstan is deepening cooperation with ExxonMobil on Tengiz, Kashagan, and export infrastructure. Food Security Watch: Scientists warn wheat curl mites and the viruses they carry are a growing threat to cereal crops. Transport Corridor: Kazakhstan continues to position itself as a key “Middle Corridor” link, including through US-Eurasia transport forum outreach.

Space & Tourism Buzz: Kazakhstan’s Emergency Ministry is pushing a new resort complex for rescuers—admin buildings, capsule housing, pools, sports and recovery areas—aimed at keeping teams ready and improving staff living conditions. Aviation Regulation: Kazakhstan is drafting rules for air taxis and urban air mobility after eVTOL test flights in Alatau City; vertiports are planned through 2028 as legislation moves through coordination. Energy Deal: First Deputy PM Nurlan Baibazarov met ExxonMobil’s Yuri Kim to deepen long-term oil and gas cooperation, with focus on Tengiz, Kashagan and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Caspian Pressure: Kazakhstan is upgrading maritime emergency response on the receding Caspian Sea, including oil-spill and rescue readiness plus dredging to keep key waterways usable. Transport & Digital CIS: CIS heads of government in Ashgabat discussed digitalization and transport integration, including a CIS geospatial data geoportal and mining digital transformation plans. Cyber Safety: A “spamathon” warning is circulating after reports of scam emails, including ones linked to Kazakhstan-origin fraud.

Oil & Gas Deal: Kazakhstan and ExxonMobil are expanding cooperation across hydrocarbon production, export infrastructure, and long-term investment—while stressing stable operations at Tengiz and Kashagan and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Urban Mobility: Astana has launched the first phase of its light rail transit system, adding momentum to the city’s wider transport push. Air Taxis Take Shape: Kazakhstan is moving from tests to rules—drafting legislation for air taxis and urban air mobility, with eVTOL trials in Alatau City and plans for vertiports by 2028. Energy Skills Hub: Kazakhstan’s Karakol training center is set to become a Central Asia energy hub, with regional specialists and safety standards in focus. Water Security Push: The government earmarked 214.6 bln tenge (2026–2028) for water-saving measures, after 874 mln m³ saved in 2025. Tech & Health: Kazakh scientists unveiled a smart bionic arm controlled by muscle signals. Environment: Kazakhstan is upgrading Caspian maritime emergency response as the sea recedes, raising risks for navigation and rescue.

Aviation Rules Move Forward: Kazakhstan is drafting the legal framework for air taxis and urban air mobility after eVTOL test flights in Alatau City, with vertiports planned and six sites targeted for construction by 2028. Grain Exports Surge: Grain and flour shipments to Afghanistan hit 3 million tons since Sept 2025, up 2.3x, lifting total exports to 11.7 million tons (+13.6%) as logistics and southern transit routes keep improving. Water Security Push: The government earmarked 214.6 billion tenge (about $455m) for water-saving measures in 2026–2028, after 874 million m³ was saved in 2025 via upgrades on 543,500 hectares. Caspian Emergency Readiness: Kazakhstan is expanding maritime rescue and oil-spill response capacity in the Caspian as the sea recedes, including dredging and upgrades around the Primorsky Canal. CIS Industrial Digitalization: PM Olzhas Bektenov backed CIS plans for digital transformation in mining and metallurgy, plus AI, transit, and water-security cooperation. Cyber Warning: A “spamathon” is spreading fake emails, including scams linked to Kazakhstan-origin messages.

Urban Air Mobility Push: Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport is drafting new rules for air taxis and urban air mobility after eVTOL test flights in Alatau City, with vertiports planned (six by 2028) and legislation already moving through coordination. Water Security Funding: The government earmarked 214.6 bln tenge (about $455 mln) for water-saving measures in 2026–2028, aiming to scale irrigation tech and boost water recycling in industry. Middle Corridor Logistics: Kazakhstan is inviting the EU to join an electronic permit exchange for international road freight as TITR transit grows and customs/digital documents get upgraded. Nuclear Timetable Under Pressure: More delays hit the first nuclear power plant as Rosatom seeks extra site observation time, while Kazakhstan also pushes higher local content for the nuclear supply chain. Aviation Connectivity: flydubai and Cyprus Airways are teaming up to expand routes, while Kazakhstan’s air taxi plans keep gaining momentum. Steel Snapshot: Worldsteel data shows April 2026 crude steel output down 1.9% year-on-year.

Travel Industry Shake-Up: Ukraine-founded Join UP! is rebranding into “Join UP! Travel Universe,” moving from a classic tour operator to a vertically integrated travel service built around SkyUp, in-house DMCs, agencies, offline shops and direct online sales. Water & Farming Push: Kazakhstan says water-saving tech is now delivering—874 mln m³ saved after rollout across 543,500 ha, with subsidies boosted to 80–85% and a target of 1.3 mln ha by 2030. Grain Export Surge: Grain and flour exports in grain equivalent hit 11.7 mln tons since September (+13.6%), with Afghanistan up 2.3x and Uzbekistan up 39.5%. Transport Digitalization: Astana invited the EU to join an electronic permit exchange for international road freight on the Trans-Caspian route, alongside port, ferry and rail upgrades. Veterinary Milestone: Kazakhstan received WOAH recognition as foot-and-mouth disease-free without vaccination, a rare status for East/Central Asia. Legal/Energy: Naftogaz won Kazakhstan court backing to enforce a $1.4bn Gazprom award, keeping the asset-recovery fight active.

Demography Shockwave: A global “baby bust” is spreading far beyond Europe, with fertility rates now below replacement in most countries—turning what looked like a regional story into a worldwide economic and social stress test. Caspian Corridor Watch: The Caspian Sea is back in focus as a key energy and transit node for Kazakhstan and the Middle Corridor, with security and shipping disruptions raising the stakes for regional trade flows. Kazakhstan–IAEA Push: Kazakhstan is set to boost cooperation with the IAEA, with a 2026–2036 roadmap on nuclear safety and scientific collaboration. Trade Momentum: Kazakhstan–Norway trade turnover jumped 37% to about $170m, while Kazakhstan–Kenya talks point to new business structures and possible direct flights. Energy & Industry: Kazakhstan is moving toward higher nuclear local content (target 30% by 2030) and expanding renewables with storage—while OPEC+ sources say July output targets may rise despite Hormuz-linked disruptions.

Kazakhstan–Kenya Diplomacy: Presidents Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and William Ruto wrapped landmark talks in Astana, with a push to turn the relationship into deals—trade, transport, agriculture, industry, IT and tourism, plus talk of regular direct flights. Trade Momentum: Kazakhstan–Norway commerce jumped 37% to about $170m, as Norwegian firms move from meetings to projects via the Kazakhstan–Norway Business Council. Nuclear Cooperation: Kazakhstan and the IAEA are set to expand ties with a 2026–2036 roadmap covering nuclear safety and science/technical collaboration. Food & Farming: Kazakhstan is exporting 3.6m+ tons of wheat, while sowing nears completion nationwide (nearly 9m ha planted) and rice irrigation is underway in Kyzylorda. Energy Transition: Kazakhstan plans “giant power banks” for renewables—wind farms up to 1 GW with ~300 MW storage each, plus pumped-storage projects. Aviation Push: Aerotaxi testing is progressing, with full trials planned for 2026 and routes under review. Legal Watch: Astana’s court cleared the path for Naftogaz to enforce a $1.4bn arbitration award against Gazprom.

Astana Court Win: Kazakhstan’s Astana International Financial Centre has recognized a Swiss arbitration ruling that clears the way to force Gazprom to pay about $1.4bn to Naftogaz, a rare foreign enforcement step inside Kazakhstan’s jurisdiction. Kenya Link-Up: President Tokayev and visiting Kenyan President Ruto signed a wide package on ICT, e-government, transport, tourism, mining, space tech and finance, with Kazakhstan also backing a Kenya trade hub in Astana and using Mombasa as a route for Kazakh grain and other farm exports to Africa. Nuclear Agenda: IAEA chief Rafael Grossi is set to visit Kazakhstan May 25–27 to sign a 2026–2036 cooperation roadmap, including nuclear medicine and science. Green Hydrogen: Kazakhstan launched its first full-cycle green hydrogen pilot in Atyrau, using solar-powered electrolysis. Transport Watch: Almaty Region says commercial air taxis likely won’t start before 2029. Trade Momentum: Q1 2026 foreign trade turnover hit $32.9bn, with exports up nearly 10%.

Kazakhstan–Kenya Diplomacy Turns Into Deals: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met Kenya’s William Ruto in Astana as the first Kenyan presidential visit to Central Asia. Both sides signed agreements and mapped cooperation in trade, energy, logistics and technology, with Kazakhstan pledging to open an embassy in Nairobi and Kenya positioning Astana as a gateway to Eurasia. Nuclear Cooperation Next Step: IAEA chief Rafael Grossi is set to visit Kazakhstan on May 25–27 for high-level talks and a 2026–2036 roadmap, including plans in nuclear energy, nuclear medicine and science. Aviation Push: Kazakhstan is moving toward aerotaxis and AI cargo systems, with new legislation for urban air mobility due by end-June, biometric boarding pilots, and e-freight digitization. Trade Momentum: Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover hit $32.9bn in Q1 2026, with exports up nearly 10%, while imports rose faster on investment and tech goods. Energy Market Watch: Kazakhstan introduced a six-month LPG export ban, while regional energy projects and transport corridors keep expanding.