AGP Executive Report

Kashagan Enforcement: Kazakhstan warned NCOC it must pay a KZT 2.3 trillion ($4.9bn) Kashagan environmental fine by July 20 or face compulsory collection, even as foreign shareholders pursue arbitration. Water Reuse Push: The Water Ministry says 168 five-year transition plans are in place to move industrial and heat operators onto recycled, closed-loop water systems, with permits tightening next year. Industry & Construction Appointments: Kazakhstan named a new vice minister of industry and construction, while Tokayev set tasks for the new ambassador to Kyrgyzstan focused on transport, energy, water, agriculture and digitalization. Prosecutor-Led Asset Recovery: Authorities say recovered illegal assets have funded 350 social facilities, and prosecutors are coordinating thousands of investment projects to launch new production and jobs. Kazakhstan–China Trade Boost: In Shanghai, business talks with CCPIT Shanghai highlighted AI, digital tech, industrial localization, critical minerals processing, mechanical engineering, agribusiness and green energy. Aviation Connectivity: Kazakhstan and China agreed to raise weekly passenger flights to 154 and expand major destinations, including talks on direct Astana–Shanghai services. Agriculture Support: The agriculture ministry outlined livestock as a growth driver, with concessional financing already reaching thousands of producers. Energy & Logistics Context: Kazakhstan’s oil output fell 8.4% in H1 2026, adding pressure as regional fuel and transit routes stay volatile.

Energy Watch: Kazakhstan’s oil production fell 8.4% to 45.7 million tons in H1 2026, with the Energy Ministry citing issues at CPC and Tengiz and rescheduling Kashagan maintenance to recover up to 2 million tons. Investment & Industry: Kazakhstan drew $19bn in greenfield investment in 2025 (ESCAP says 89% of Central Asia’s new production investment), while fixed capital investment rose 9.6% in H1 2026; the government also reported GDP growth of 4.1% in the first half, driven by non-oil production, construction, manufacturing, and transport. Aviation & Logistics: Kazakhstan and China agreed to raise regular passenger flights from 124 to 152 per week and expand China destination access; Kazakhstan and Thailand also discussed transport and logistics corridor cooperation. Trade & Connectivity: Afghanistan, Russia and Kazakhstan signed about $7m in trade deals covering construction materials, pharmaceuticals, food and agricultural services. Nuclear Cooperation: Kazakhstan’s Atomic Energy Agency chief is touring China’s nuclear facilities as Kazakhstan and China deepen nuclear ties. Space & Tech Spotlight: NASA astronaut Anil Menon arrived at the ISS aboard Soyuz MS-29 launched from Baikonur, with his mission including AI-assisted medical tech and semiconductor research.

Space & Industry Links: NASA astronaut Anil Menon and Roscosmos cosmonauts Pyotr Dubrov and Anna Kikina docked with the ISS after a Soyuz MS-29 launch from Kazakhstan’s Baikonur, with Menon set to run research on microgravity health and semiconductor crystal production plus AI-assisted medical demos. Oil & Energy Pressure: Kazakhstan’s oil output fell 8.4% in H1 2026 to 45.7m tons, though maintenance deferrals at Kashagan are expected to recover up to 2m tons; separately, Kazakhstan’s court process on Kashagan’s environmental fine is moving toward enforcement as operators challenge the penalty via arbitration. Digital Economy: Kaspi.kz unveiled “Kasper,” a personal AI assistant aimed at helping customers choose products and services more easily, signaling more consumer-facing AI rollout in Kazakhstan’s fintech. AI in Real Production: Kazakh universities are turning AI into pilots for industry and services, including drone-based solar panel defect detection and oil-and-gas data analysis tools. Trade & Logistics: Kazakhstan is pushing new transit options, including a plan to build an Iran port terminal at Shahid Rajee Port to improve access for trade routes. Macroeconomy: GDP growth hit 4.1% in H1 2026, led by non-oil sectors like manufacturing, construction, trade and transport.

Macroeconomy & Industry: Kazakhstan’s GDP growth accelerated to 4.1% in H1 2026, driven mainly by manufacturing (+9.8%), construction (+15.2%), transport (+7.1%), and trade (+5.7%); fixed capital investment hit KZT 9.5 trillion and private investment rose 21.4%. Energy & Prices: The government kept the LPG wholesale price cap at the current level through end-2026. Astana Infrastructure Push: Over KZT 16.2 billion from the government reserve will fund Astana’s wastewater and energy upgrades, including modernization at CHPP-2 and a new 110/20 kV substation. Food Inflation Control: Kazakhstan plans more agricultural fairs and tighter steps to slow food inflation; annual inflation eased to 10.3% in June. Agro-Processing Output: Butter production jumped 47.4% and sunflower oil output rose 13.2% (Jan–Apr), with exports also increasing. Trade & Logistics: Kazakhstan’s growth story is also tied to regional connectivity as Central Asia trade routes expand. Health Preparedness: A regional webinar will focus on avian influenza and the One Health approach across Central Asia. Space & Tech Spotlight: NASA astronaut Anil Menon is set to launch from Baikonur (Kazakhstan) for an 8-month ISS mission, highlighting Kazakhstan’s role in global space operations. Film & Tourism: Jackie Chan’s new movie is filming in Mangistau and Almaty, expected to boost tourism and investment interest.

Space & Tech Diplomacy: NASA astronaut of Indian descent Anil Menon will launch from Kazakhstan’s Baikonur on Soyuz MS-29 for an eight-month ISS mission, joining two Roscosmos cosmonauts—another high-profile example of cross-border cooperation in space. Constitution & EU-linked Industry: President Tokayev signed the enabling law for Kazakhstan’s new constitution and, in Brussels, secured a major EU package including Air Astana’s order for 50 Airbus jets plus financing for transport corridors and logistics digitization—supporting aviation and infrastructure modernization. Trade & Production Push: Kazakhstan’s economy grew 4.1% in H1 2026, with manufacturing up 9.8% and construction up 15.2%; the government plans 200 investment projects worth 1.7 trillion tenge to create 17,000 jobs and expand housing to 20 million sq m. Agro-Industry Momentum: Agricultural exports hit $3bn in Jan–Apr (+36%); meat output rose 5.3% in H1 and cattle numbers reached 9.34m head—signals for continued food processing scale-up. Logistics & Aviation Links: Cathay plans cargo flights to Astana from Aug 2026 and passenger service to Almaty from Jan 2027, while Kazakhstan and Japan discussed direct flight launches to deepen trade and tourism. Energy & Markets: Kazakhstan’s oil production fell 8.4% in H1, while CPC oil exports dropped 7% in June amid Kashagan maintenance and Hormuz-related volatility; separately, Kazakhstan will regulate the digital asset market via a National Bank committee.

Water & Jobs: Kazakhstan’s water infrastructure push is set to create 975 permanent and 1,866 temporary jobs, with plans to build new reservoirs, modernize canals, and commission hundreds of kilometers of irrigation lines. Astana Infrastructure: The capital will receive KZT16.2 bln for engineering and energy upgrades, including wastewater collector works and CHP-2 turbine modernization to boost power reliability for tens of thousands of residents. Power Project Delay: Almaty’s CHPP-3 construction is behind schedule, with readiness around 26% amid a shortage of about 1,000 workers and delayed delivery of key equipment. Gas Output Plan: Kazakhstan targets 35.5 bcm of marketable gas by 2032, driven by new processing plants at Kashagan and other major fields. Crypto Regulation: President Tokayev signed a decree to accelerate regulated digital-asset adoption, including stablecoin payments and incentives for licensed activity. Aviation & Logistics: Cathay Airlines plans Hong Kong–Almaty passenger flights from Jan 2027 and cargo service to Astana starting Aug 1, supporting trade and tourism links. FDI Snapshot: UNCTAD reports Central Asia’s FDI inflows rose to $5bn in 2025, led by Kazakhstan and extractives/infrastructure deals. Energy Security Shock: Central Asia braces for a fuel squeeze as Russia tightens diesel exports amid refinery disruptions, with Kazakhstan weighing any Kyrgyz fuel request only after securing its own market. Industry Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Japan move forward on a $3.7bn deal pipeline, while Kazakhstan–UK talks highlight rhenium processing cooperation. Health Supply Chain: Santhera expands its AGAMREE® distribution agreement via Biomedica to cover Kazakhstan and several nearby markets for Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Energy Security: Ukraine’s drone campaign hit eight Russian “shadow fleet” fuel tankers in the Sea of Azov, aiming to choke gasoline deliveries to Crimea and worsen shortages. Regional Fuel Crunch: Central Asia is scrambling as Russia restricts diesel exports; Kyrgyzstan is seeking backup supplies including from Kazakhstan, while Kazakhstan says any exports depend on protecting its own market. Kazakhstan Gas Outlook: The energy ministry says marketable gas output could reach 35.5 bcm by 2032, driven by new processing plants tied to Kashagan and Karachaganak. Digital Policy: President Tokayev signed a decree to accelerate Kazakhstan’s regulated crypto push, including stablecoin payments, tokenized products, and incentives for licensed activity. Agriculture Controls: Kazakhstan blocked cherries and plums from Kyrgyzstan after phytosanitary checks found quarantine pests, returning shipments and imposing fines. Environment & Waste: Astana firefighters kept battling a major landfill blaze for a third day, using inert material to isolate hotspots. Connectivity: Ookla data shows Kazakhstan’s mobile download speeds outpacing Britain, highlighting a wider telecom upgrade gap. Industry & Trade: Kazakhstan Temir Zholy leadership changes and new logistics/industrial cooperation items also surfaced, alongside Kazakhstan-linked regional investment interest.

Aviation & Security: Kyrgyzstan’s TezJet flight aborted takeoff at Manas due to landing-gear malfunction; the airline’s license was later revoked after safety violations. Energy & Fuel Logistics: Ukraine escalated its Crimea fuel disruption campaign, striking Russian “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov, adding pressure to gasoline deliveries. Space & Tech Talent: Kazakhstan’s Baikonur will host the July 14 launch of Indian-origin NASA astronaut Anil Menon to the ISS on Soyuz MS-29, reinforcing the region’s role in high-tech aerospace. Agri-Industry Diversification: A Turkistan greenhouse complex is producing bananas at industrial scale, turning tropical cultivation into both an export-ready agri venture and a tourism draw. Sports & Digital Economy: Astana is gearing up for the Games of the Future 2026 (July 29) with phygital disciplines across major venues, supported by logistics and security readiness. Trade & Connectivity: Cathay Pacific plans cargo flights to Astana from Aug. 1 and passenger service to Almaty from Jan. 2027, boosting Kazakhstan–Hong Kong air links. Water & Infrastructure: Kazakhstan and Germany discussed scaling water-management cooperation, aligned with a plan to invest over 3 trillion tenge in the water sector. Household Demand: Kazakhstan’s real household incomes rose for the first time in a year as inflation eased, with agriculture, manufacturing, and transport showing strong wage growth.

Air Connectivity Boost: Cathay Pacific plans cargo flights to Astana from Aug. 1 and passenger service between Hong Kong and Almaty from Jan. 2027, aiming to tighten Kazakhstan’s trade and logistics links. Energy & Trade Pressure: Kazakhstan is tightening border controls and extending petroleum export restrictions to curb “gasoline tourism” as Russia’s fuel crunch worsens amid drone strikes. Crypto Reform: Kazakhstan is drafting a voluntary disclosure mechanism to legalize previously held or mined cryptocurrencies via licensed providers, targeting operation by end-2026. Agro-Industry Exports: Kazakhstan’s agro-industrial exports hit $3bn in four months, with agriculture output and food production growth supported by concessional financing and veterinary upgrades. Water & Infrastructure: Kazakhstan and Germany advance water conservation cooperation, with plans to scale projects after pilots and a broader push to invest over 3 trillion tenge in the water sector. EAEU Logistics Rules: The EEC Council backed Kazakhstan’s request to extend deadlines for navigation seals, easing compliance until Jan. 1, 2028. Industry Partnerships: Kazakhstan and Japan move forward on a $3.7bn pipeline of cooperation, while METLEN and Kazakhstan discuss metallurgy and critical raw materials. Governance Update: Kazakhstan’s new Constitution is framed as the start of systemic transformation, with implementation and legislation alignment now the key task.

Fuel Security & Border Enforcement: Kazakhstan tightened border controls on Russian fuel “tourism,” adding checkpoints and limiting crossings to one per day as gasoline shortages and drone-linked refinery damage in Russia spill into Central Asia. Energy Disruption: Ukraine’s deep drone strikes hit Russian “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov, aiming to cut gasoline deliveries to Crimea and worsen shortages. Water & Infrastructure: Kazakhstan and Germany agreed to expand water conservation projects, with plans to scale efforts across southern regions; Kazakhstan also plans major water-sector investment. Industry & Investment: METLEN and Kazakhstan discussed metallurgy, critical raw materials, circular economy steps, and EU-linked water-energy-climate cooperation. Agro-Industry Exports: Kazakhstan’s agro-industrial exports reached $3bn in four months, supported by rising processed output and livestock-focused financing. Crypto Regulation: Kazakhstan is preparing a voluntary disclosure mechanism to legalize previously held cryptocurrencies via licensed providers, targeting operation by end-2026. Tech & Education Links: University of Arizona and Kozybayev North Kazakhstan University expand joint programs, while Kazakhstan’s AI pavilion and international education ties keep growing. Diplomacy & Nuclear Oversight: Tokayev and Trump discussed economic cooperation and reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s stance on nuclear nonproliferation and IAEA safeguards. Regional Logistics: EEC Council backed Kazakhstan’s navigation-seal timeline extension to 2028, easing compliance costs for cargo tracking.

Fuel Security & Sanctions: Ukraine escalated its Crimea isolation push by striking eight Russian “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov, targeting gasoline deliveries and worsening shortages. Border Enforcement: Kazakhstan moved to curb fuel smuggling by deploying 59 checkpoints along the Russia border as the regional fuel squeeze deepens. Agribusiness: Russia’s watchdog asked Kazakhstan to suspend food sunflower exports until Jan 1, 2027, alleging illegal shipments of planting seeds disguised as food. Energy & Industry Links: Kazakhstan and South Korea will set up a rare metals research center in Almaty at Satbayev University to advance processing of rare and rare-earth materials. Mining Development: Cove Kaz Capital began site preparation at Northern Katpar tungsten deposits ahead of definitive feasibility work. Logistics & Trade Costs: Middle Corridor container shipping from China to Europe via Kazakhstan rose sharply, with tariffs up nearly $500 over four months. Nuclear Supply Chain: India’s NTPC floated a tender to find overseas uranium mining assets, explicitly including Kazakhstan, as it targets major nuclear capacity growth. Policy & Diplomacy: Tokayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s stance on nuclear nonproliferation and IAEA cooperation in a call with Trump.

Alatau City Push: Kazakhstan PM Olzhas Bektenov ordered faster rollout of the new Alatau city special regime, with a long-term plan to 2055 and master plan to 2040, plus smart-city projects like an AI-driven city, digital twin and crypto ecosystem—aiming to mobilize 2 trillion tenge across 53 investment projects and 51,000 jobs. Energy Safety at Home: A deadly gas-cylinder blast in Shchuchinsk has reignited debate over Kazakhstan’s fragmented gas distribution, leaving about a third of residents relying on cylinders despite vast reserves. Rail/Legal Dispute: The AIFC Court revoked an enforcement order tied to Naftogaz’s $1.4bn arbitration claim against Gazprom, citing lack of jurisdiction, while Naftogaz continues enforcement efforts in Kazakhstan. Finance/Markets: Kazakhstan Temir Zholy filed for a Hong Kong listing, adding to HKEX’s growing pipeline of foreign issuers. Regional Macro: The ADB kept Kazakhstan’s 2026-2027 growth and inflation forecasts unchanged, while warning of weaker regional conditions. Uranium Demand Signal: India’s NTPC is tendering consultants to find overseas uranium mines, naming Kazakhstan among target countries. Space-Tech Spotlight: NASA astronaut Anil Menon will launch from Baikonur in Kazakhstan on July 14 for an eight-month ISS mission.

Energy Security & Fuel Flows: Ukraine says it has disrupted Russia’s fuel supply enough to force imports, while drone strikes hit Russia-linked “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov, raising pressure on gasoline deliveries to Crimea. Kazakhstan Border Fuel Crackdown: Kazakhstan denies claims that drones targeting Russia’s Omsk refinery were launched from its territory, as Astana tightens controls to curb gray fuel exports. Gas Infrastructure Push: PM Bektenov orders tighter weekly monitoring for major gas processing and transport projects at Kashagan and Karachaganak and across regions, linking delivery speed to energy security and investment appeal. Water Sector Modernization: Kazakhstan’s water digital system is now operational, and the government flags schedule slippage in regional projects while scaling reservoirs, canals, and water-saving tech. Critical Minerals Processing: Kazakhstan signs a $107m deal with the UK’s Maritime House to boost rhenium processing, while talks with Metlen Group focus on advanced metal processing and circular-economy waste recovery. Investment Climate & Digital Industry: Constitutional reforms are framed as improving legal predictability for investors, and Kazakhstan’s IT services market hits a record ₸2.9tn in 2025. Transport & Logistics Ambition: Kazakhstan moves ahead on a 27-year BOT deal to build a logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee Port, aiming to extend trade access toward the Persian Gulf despite rising regional risks. Industrial AI Cooperation: A Belt and Road industrial AI training program in Shanghai included Kazakhstan participants and showcased AI-enabled manufacturing and automation. Market Watch: AIFC Court revokes an enforcement order tied to Naftogaz’s arbitration claim against Gazprom over gas transit.

Fuel Security & Border Controls: Kazakhstan tightened fuel export controls after Russia’s refinery crisis spilled into Central Asia, including a one-entry-per-day rule for vehicles from neighboring countries to curb “grey” fuel smuggling. Energy War Spillover: A Chevron-chartered tanker used for Caspian Pipeline Consortium shipments (Yasa Polaris) was hit by a drone off Russia’s Black Sea coast; Kazakhstan said its exports were not affected. Digital Health & AI: Astana Hub launched MedHub HAQ, a nonprofit platform to accelerate medical AI in Kazakhstan and Central Asia using anonymized data and a medtech startup accelerator. Crypto Regulation Push: President Tokayev signed a decree to ease stablecoin cross-border payments and offer income-tax relief to retail traders, aiming to pull crypto business into a regulated market. Industrial Logistics & Trade Routes: Kazakhstan plans a logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaei port under a 27-year BOT deal, boosting access to Persian Gulf and beyond. Cybersecurity: Kaspersky flagged the Armored Likho campaign using BusySnake malware targeting government and electric power organizations in Russia and Kazakhstan. Agriculture Checks: Kyrgyzstan blocked 1.7 tons of Kazakh melons over phytosanitary violations.

Crypto Regulation Push: President Tokayev signed a decree to ease stablecoin cross-border payments, offer income-tax relief for retail crypto traders, and allow miners to burn unneeded gas for power—aimed at pulling crypto activity into a regulated Kazakhstan. Fuel Border Crackdown: Kazakhstan introduced a one-entry-per-day rule for cargo and passenger vehicles from neighboring countries to curb “gray” fuel exports amid Russia’s diesel and gasoline crunch. Regional Energy Spillover: Kazakhstan is weighing Kyrgyzstan’s request for gasoline supplies while extending its own fuel export ban until May 2027, as Central Asia faces early winter fuel stress driven by Russian supply limits. Oil Infrastructure Under Strain: A drone attack hit the Chevron-linked Yasa Polaris tanker near Russia’s Black Sea coast; Kazakhstan exports via CPC Blend were reported as not disrupted. Mining Enforcement: Karaganda court sentenced three people for illegal ore mining, with damage to the state exceeding 2 billion tenge. Industry Growth Signals: Steppe Cement reported a 43% jump in 1H26 revenue on higher volumes and price gains, while expanding capacity toward 2.5Mt by 2027. Copper Deal Abroad: Solidcore Resources agreed with Oman’s MDO to develop the Khabiyat copper-gold project, marking Solidcore’s first exploration venture outside Kazakhstan. AI Showcase: Kazakhstan unveiled its AI pavilion at the UN AI for Good summit in Geneva, pitching Astana Hub incentives and GovTech/data-center initiatives.

Fuel Security: Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry says it doesn’t expect shortages of fuel and lubricants despite Russia’s supply crunch, citing formed reserves and border measures to curb exports. Gas Expansion: KMG plans to nearly double commercial gas output to 4.5 bcm by 2030, with new volumes tied to Rozhkovskoye, Zapadnaya Prorva and Tsentralny Urkhtau projects. Gas Infrastructure: The government outlined a 2025–2029 gas development plan and a 2035 hydrocarbon roadmap, plus timelines for Kashagan and Karachaganak gas processing plants and pipeline upgrades. Gasification Push: Kazakhstan targets raising gasification coverage from 64.2% to 80% by 2035, supported by the Ishim–Astana pipeline and dozens of projects. Logistics & Trade: Kazakhstan will build a logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port under a 27-year deal, aiming to strengthen the North–South corridor and access Persian Gulf and beyond. Middle Corridor Boost: Kazakhstan Railways launched a circular China–Russia rail route via Kazakhstan, with turnaround time around 20 days and container support along the way. Oversight & Budget: The Supreme Audit Chamber reports 128 billion tenge recovered in H1 2026 and new rules to tighten budget forecasting and treasury control. Digital Assets: A presidential decree sets measures to develop Kazakhstan’s digital asset industry, including infrastructure, investment climate steps, and clearer regulation for trading platforms.