AGP Executive Report

BRICS Summit Watch: India kicked off the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi as leaders including Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian arrived amid the US-Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the agenda centered on resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability. Local Diplomacy & Industry Links: PM Modi met Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, focusing on defence, AI, space, critical minerals, energy and connectivity, alongside a reported $11.5bn integrated greenfield aluminium project in Odisha—an industrial signal for regional supply chains. Energy Security Pressure: The IEA estimated 2.8bn barrels of oil export losses linked to Hormuz disruptions, while Kazakhstan is cited as part of alternative supply that helps offset the gap. Kazakhstan Oil Export Posture: Kazakhstan said it is not changing its core oil export approach despite CPC pipeline and Black Sea shipping attacks, stressing logistics and insurance remain market-driven. Kazakhstan in Global Spotlight: Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina reached the US Open final against Aryna Sabalenka, keeping Kazakhstan’s name visible beyond industry headlines.

BRICS Summit in New Delhi: India is hosting the 18th BRICS Summit on Sept 12-13, with leaders including Putin, Xi and others arriving as the agenda centers on food, energy and supply-chain resilience plus digital payments and trade in local currencies; Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal urged BRICS members to link payment systems and expand UPI-style rails. Kazakhstan in the spotlight: Moody’s says Strait of Hormuz shipping risks could lift oil-export revenues for Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, boosting the Middle Corridor via the Caspian and South Caucasus. Energy cooperation: Azerbaijan and Türkiye are pushing an “electric version of TANAP” to move power toward Europe, while also discussing interconnections with Kazakhstan. Finance and trade rails: Experts argue BRICS should deepen banking links and financial-market depth to make cross-border local-currency trade work. Infrastructure ties: Kazakhstan and the Czech Republic discussed modernizing water supply, wastewater treatment and using digital tools like monitoring and BIM. Legal twist for Kashagan: Kazakhstan suspended enforcement to collect a $5bn environmental fine from Kashagan operator NCOC after a court restraining order.

BRICS Deal-Making for Industry: India’s BRICS summit in New Delhi (Sept 12-13) is set to fine-tune a BRICS Incubator Network, a Startup Innovation Fund, and a Logistics Supply-Chain Cooperation Framework, with Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev among partner-country leaders attending. Kazakhstan-India Industrial Push: A Kazakhstan–India business forum in India produced B2B agreements across healthcare, agriculture machinery, defense tech, tourism, and biofuels, plus sister-city deals (Shymkent–Coimbatore; Turkistan–Chennai) and a push for direct air connectivity. Uranium Market Signal: TD Cowen flags record uranium term pricing and expects demand growth with potential supply constraints, noting Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom timing risk around a sulfuric-acid facility that could affect 2027 output. Caspian Logistics Pressure: With Middle Corridor freight momentum, regional ports and corridors are under the spotlight, as Azerbaijan and Georgia discuss faster transit and capacity expansion tied to digital and infrastructure upgrades. Energy Trade Watch: Russia’s electricity exports to Kazakhstan rose 20.3% in Jan–Jun 2026, highlighting continued power trade links. Sanctions Risk for Aviation Supply Chains: New U.S. Treasury actions target entities tied to Iran’s aviation sector, including intermediaries in Kazakhstan, raising compliance pressure for regional logistics and aircraft-related trade.

Transport Skills Crunch: Kazakhstan’s transport sector employs about 870,000 people but needs roughly 57,000 more specialists as rail, road, aviation, maritime and logistics expand and digitalisation adds new roles. Food & Consumer Manufacturing: Ajisen Ramen is set to enter Kazakhstan via a Central Asia-focused JV, with Almaty as the logistics and production hub and a centralized kitchen factory planned to localize halal supply and create jobs (2027–2031 rollout). Energy & Industry: Kazakhstan’s oil export flows are rising as KazTransOil reports higher pipeline throughput and CPC volumes, underscoring the need for multiple export routes. Nuclear Debate: Kazakhstan signed an agreement with Rosatom to build the Balkhash Nuclear Power Plant (two reactors, 2,400 MW), reigniting discussion on how uranium producers can shift from exports to power generation. Oil Prices Watch: Brent pushed above $100 a barrel amid Middle East shipping risk, feeding into broader cost pressures across transport and supply chains. BRICS in Focus: Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev is expected to attend the Sept. 12–13 BRICS summit in New Delhi, where India’s agenda centers on resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability. Logistics Corridor Growth: Trans-Caspian container traffic through Aktau jumped from 16,400 TEU (2023) to 65,300 TEU (2025), with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan pushing better rail-port data sharing to scale services.

Caspian & Transport: Ukraine’s drone strikes hit Russia’s Novorossiysk oil terminal and reportedly sparked a fire, raising new uncertainty for Black Sea oil flows that include Kazakhstan crude via the CPC pipeline. Oil & Gas Infrastructure: Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry says loading at CPC terminals SPM-3 and SPM-2 was temporarily halted after inspections of systems and tankers, but operations resumed normally with no environmental impact and no intake limits on Kazakh shippers. State Investment & Industry: President Tokayev was briefed on Samruk-Kazyna’s 2026 investment push: 3.2 trillion tenge across rail, power, oil refining at Kashagan, and data center/fiber-optic projects, with 2027-2029 plans of 21 trillion tenge. Finance: Kazakhstan issued a record 6.6 billion yuan in panda bonds, with Teniz Capital as local manager, signaling deeper Kazakhstan–China capital-market ties. Agriculture: Kazakhstan’s grain harvest reached 13 mln+ tons, with 93% of soft wheat meeting food-grade standards. Health Regulation: Kazakhstan’s Health Ministry proposes tighter advertising rules for fast food and sugary drinks aimed at children, targeting TV, radio, social media, and outdoor ads. Energy Transition: Masdar’s 1 GW wind plant highlights Kazakhstan’s push for a more flexible power system.

Food Policy: Kazakhstan’s Health Ministry proposes restricting ads for high-salt, high-sugar and high-fat foods aimed at children across TV, radio, social media and billboards, citing overweight and obesity concerns and pushing healthier habits from early childhood. Transport & Trade: Kazakhstan’s transport officials say Middle Corridor freight needs faster, more transparent operations, with calls for a single transit operator and a joint IT platform for customs across Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Digital Logistics: Kazakhstan and Hong Kong signed an MoU to launch a transport lab and exchange know-how on low-altitude traffic management, including drone delivery and autonomous taxis. Investment & Finance: UAE’s ADCB plans to expand project financing in Kazakhstan, focusing on energy, rail, petrochemicals, transport and logistics, as the government highlights a new investment push. Environment & Industry: Kazakhstan suspended collection of a $5bn environmental fine from Kashagan operator NCOC while arbitration proceeds, and is moving ahead with a Pavlodar paper recycling plant (QazRoyalPak) to expand recycled feedstock use. Energy Transition: Kazakhstan is advancing draft rules for energy storage systems and renewable capacity planning, while also discussing a green energy model built around storage and low-carbon tech. Space & Tech: Kazakhstan plans an international Earth-observation satellite constellation (nine satellites by 2030, up to 14 later) with partners including Mongolia, Congo and Nigeria. Geopolitics: Central Asian foreign ministers urged new verifiable nuclear arms control mechanisms on the 20th anniversary of the regional nuclear-weapon-free zone treaty.

Renewables Deal: Kazakhstan plans to commission a 1GW wind farm with 300MW of storage (600MWh) under a Masdar partnership, aiming to stabilize power for the south and support carbon-neutral goals. Trade & Logistics: Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev met the WCO chief to push a “smart border” using digital customs tools, reinforcing Eurasian cargo transit and transport connectivity. Aviation Sanctions: The US Treasury escalated “Operation Economic Outcast” by sanctioning Iran’s remaining 27 airlines plus 35 related firms, including entities linked to Mahan Air with Kazakhstan named among third-country support networks—raising compliance risk for regional logistics and aviation services. Cross-border E-commerce: At China’s Horgos border center, Kazakh livestreamers are driving fast-growing cross-border online sales, with logistics and warehousing expanding alongside the model. Energy Security Watch: Mongolia’s fuel crisis—queues and shortages tied to disrupted Russian supply—highlights how regional shocks can quickly spill into Kazakhstan’s wider transport and energy corridors. Industry Finance: Solidcore Resources announced a $1.2bn share buyback, with the company operating Kazakhstan gold assets.

Kazakhstan–Japan Industrial Push: Kazakhstan and Japan are deepening industrial and investment cooperation after Tokayev’s 2025 Tokyo visit, with 60 agreements worth $3.7bn and 17 joint projects (~$940m) now being implemented, and a new intergovernmental commission meeting set for Astana in Dec 2026. Energy & Refining Upgrade: KMG International is modernizing the Petromidia refinery in a project expected to raise crude/product storage capacity by 20%, including new and expanded tanks and safety-focused work. Power Grid Modernization: EBRD approved up to €194m for AZhC to upgrade Almaty-area electricity distribution with smart metering, telemechanics, and network modernization to cut losses and emissions. Skills for Industry: Kazakhstan expects a shortage of qualified workers by 2035, with demand outpacing training most sharply in construction and agriculture, prompting calls to rebalance state-funded education places. EV Charging Expansion: Kazakhstan’s highway EV charging network reached 62 stations across 13 regions, with plans for 27 more service stations (including along the Western Europe–Western China corridor). Water Security Overhaul: Kazakhstan is digitizing and restructuring water management, with 23,000+ water bodies already digitized under a national information system, alongside a broader plan to build reservoirs and modernize irrigation. Regional Logistics & Trade Routes: Azerbaijan Railways says work is underway to boost West-to-East freight on the Middle Corridor by securing backhaul cargo, including containerized flows linked to Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Space Ambitions: Kazakhstan is positioning as a Central Asian space hub, expanding satellite capabilities and discussing a regional space agency at Space Days Kazakhstan 2026 in Astana. Caspian Sea Risk: Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea decline is raising water, ecosystem, shipping, and coastal infrastructure concerns as the country strengthens water management. BRICS Diplomacy: India hosts the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit on Sept 12–13, with Putin and Xi expected to attend, underscoring new diplomatic and economic momentum for the region.

Space & Satellites: Kazakhstan plans to expand its Earth observation satellite constellation to 14 spacecraft, starting with nine by 2030, with six Kazakh satellites plus partners from Mongolia, Congo and Nigeria; the country is also developing KazSat-3R and using Astana’s satellite assembly/testing base to boost domestic engineering. Power & Grid Modernization: EBRD is backing Kazakhstan’s Alatau Zharyk to modernize the electricity network with smart meters and telecom equipment under the MEKS program, while the government approved a $1.9bn, 700MW Kurchatov power plant deal. Finance & Banking Oversight: S&P upgraded its view of Kazakhstan’s banking industry risk and raised outlooks for several banks, citing stronger supervision as credit growth cools. Agro-Industry & Trade: Kazakhstan’s tourism push is accelerating, with investment and hotel growth targets, and Kazakhstan-Korea talks advanced a joint meat and food production push (beef exports and sunflower oil supply). Energy Markets: OPEC+ kept October oil quotas unchanged despite Middle East disruption risks, with Kazakhstan among the participating producers. Mining & Commodities: Oman is moving into higher-value mining projects and is partnering with Kazakh Solidcore Resources on copper and gold development. Tech & Cyber Safety: Astana teens joined an EU-backed workshop on “digital dignity,” producing anti-cyberbullying video campaigns.

Oil & Energy Policy: OPEC+ kept October oil quotas unchanged, including Kazakhstan’s target at 1.628 mln bpd, as Iran–US tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep markets jumpy and the group plans its next review for Oct. 4. Upstream Expansion: Kazakhstan is ramping exploration and appraisal drilling, targeting about 80 wells in 2026 and up to 120 per year in 2027–2028, with ~200 wells planned overall and faster auction-based access to exploration blocks. Oil Export Infrastructure: Kazakhstan plans a $327 mln upgrade of pipeline sections feeding China, boosting combined capacity to 35 mln tons annually via expansions of Kenkiyak–Atyrau and Kenkiyak–Kumkol and new pumping stations. Gas Supply: Gazprom increased gas exports to Central Asia by about 70% since the start of 2026, including higher deliveries to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan under long-term deals. Finance & Banking: S&P revised Freedom Holding Corp’s outlook to positive, citing improved Kazakhstan banking risk assessment, stronger capital and diversified earnings for Freedom24 and key subsidiaries. Trade & Food Security: China and Kazakhstan launched a grain trading platform, aiming to strengthen regional food security amid rising global grain prices and shipping disruptions.

Oil & Energy Policy: OPEC+ (including Kazakhstan) voted to keep crude output quotas unchanged for October, holding the group’s target at September levels as Iran-war disruptions keep Strait of Hormuz flows uncertain and prices hover near recent highs. Geopolitics & Energy Risk: Multiple reports stress OPEC+ can adjust targets “on paper,” but physical export constraints limit real market impact—shifting attention to tougher 2027 quota talks. Power Generation (Industry): Kazakhstan approved a new 700 MW coal-fired power plant project in Kurchatov (881bn tenge), aimed at boosting electricity for the National Nuclear Center and related research facilities, with staged commissioning by 2032. Agriculture Tech: Kazakh researchers unveiled BioDrop, a drone-based system that spreads beneficial insects for pest control, with field trials showing higher biological effectiveness than manual distribution. Trade & Logistics (Agri): Kazakhstan launched a China grain-trading digital platform; 35 Kazakh firms registered and deals were signed for 24,000 tons of oilseed flax. Finance: S&P upgraded Kazakhstan’s banking industry risk assessment, citing stronger supervision and tighter controls on risk-taking. Diplomacy/Industry Links: Italy’s PM Meloni publicly thanked President Tokayev, highlighting cooperation opportunities from energy and critical minerals to higher education.

Energy & OPEC+ Watch: OPEC+ is set to keep October oil output policy unchanged after completing its 2023 voluntary cut unwind, with Kazakhstan among the seven core members; the focus now shifts to behind-the-scenes capacity reviews feeding 2027 quota talks amid Hormuz disruption. Agritech & Food Security: Kazakhstan’s BioDrop drone system is being rolled out to spread beneficial insects over fields, boosting biological pest-control effectiveness versus manual methods in trials. Digital Trade: Kazakhstan and China launched a grain/agri online trading platform based on China’s grain marketplace, with 35 Kazakh firms already registered and early contracts signed for oilseed flax exports. Power & Industry Infrastructure: Kazakhstan approved an 881bn tenge, 700 MW coal-fired plant project in Kurchatov (two 350 MW units, staged to 2032) to power major nuclear research facilities. Logistics: Kazakhstan plans to lift maritime port cargo capacity to 30m tons by 2030 and expand Trans-Caspian/Middle Corridor rail and port capacity. Finance: S&P upgraded Kazakhstan’s banking sector risk assessment, citing stronger supervision, stress testing, and controls on retail lending risk-taking.

Grain Trade Digitalization: Kazakhstan and China launched a joint online grain trading platform, built on China’s National Grain Trade Center, letting Kazakh firms sell grains and oilseeds directly with auctions, tenders, fixed-price deals, plus guarantees, inspections and dispute resolution; 35 Kazakh companies are already registered and contracts were signed for 24,000 tons of flax. Power & Industry Buildout: Kazakhstan approved an 881bn tenge ($1.9bn) 700 MW thermal power plant in Kurchatov (two 350 MW units, staged commissioning to 2032) to back the National Nuclear Center and other research facilities. Maritime Logistics Push: Kazakhstan plans to lift maritime port cargo capacity from 21.8m to 30m tons by 2030, expanding Aktau and Kuryk with new terminals, dredging, berth upgrades and more vessels to boost the Middle Corridor’s annual throughput. Shipping Security: Kazakhstan raised Black Sea tanker attack concerns with the IMO, urging safer routes for vessels carrying Kazakh crude and highlighting Trans-Caspian corridor and port modernization. Agriculture & Food Costs: FAO reported rising global wheat and sugar prices amid Black Sea export disruptions and weather-driven yield risks, while Kazakhstan also showcased rice cultivation research and water-saving tech in Kyzylorda. Crypto-Fiat Gateway: Kazakhstan’s National Bank, AIFC and the Ministry of AI and Digital Development signed MOUs with Binance to build a crypto-fiat gateway, explore stablecoin issuance and modernize payments. Aviation Security: Kazakhstan will host its first ICAO Aviation Security Week in Astana on Oct 20-22, aiming to strengthen “safe skies” cooperation.

Maritime Security: Kazakhstan raised tanker-attack concerns with the IMO, stressing safe navigation for vessels carrying Kazakh crude and pushing for Middle Corridor growth via Aktau and Kuryk port modernization. Agriculture Modernization: Kyzylorda rice harvesting kicked off with new water-saving tech, machinery, and funded upgrades for the Zhakhayev Kazakh Scientific and Research Rice Growing Institute. Aviation & Standards: Kazakhstan will host its first ICAO Aviation Security Week (Oct. 20–22) to strengthen “safe skies” cooperation and build trust as a regional aviation hub. Digital Finance & Crypto: Kazakhstan’s National Bank and AIFC signed MOUs with Binance to build a crypto-fiat gateway, explore stablecoin issuance, and roll out payment infrastructure. Energy & Industry Risk: Diesel price spikes tied to Ukraine-linked refining disruptions underline how Black Sea/Caspian logistics and regional fuel security remain tightly linked to global markets. Oil Output Stability: Kazakhstan says oil production is stabilized after CPC pipeline disruptions, with 2026 output projected near 96 million tonnes. Workforce for Projects: Deltareco will recruit specialized manpower for Oil & Gas, EPC and industrial projects at KIOGE 2026 in Almaty. Governance: Murat Baimukashev was appointed Head of Kazakhstan’s Security Council Office, with a background spanning internal affairs and security roles.

Crypto Policy Push: Binance founder Changpeng Zhao met Kazakhstan’s deputy PM Zhaslan Madiyev to sign memoranda on stablecoin issuance and digital payments, including a Binance Pay rollout via Alatau City Bank and plans for a CryptoCity zone. Energy & Transport Stability: Kazakhstan says oil output has stabilized after CPC pipeline disruptions, while Kazakhstan also cleared a new transit oil delivery route to Kyrgyzstan via KazTransOil. Maritime Safety: Kazakhstan and the IMO discussed safe navigation for tankers and practical steps to modernize Caspian Sea transport and port infrastructure. Critical Minerals Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s role in critical-mineral supply chains drew heavy focus at a U.S. House hearing, with lawmakers highlighting uranium and pushing for trade-policy changes. Nuclear Build-Out: Rosatom contract work for Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant continues, alongside broader nuclear deal updates. Environment Agenda: Tokayev tasked a new ecology minister with forest restoration, waste recycling, and waste-to-energy plans for Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent. Regional Connectivity: Kazakhstan and Laos advanced talks on linking transport corridors, using Kazakhstan’s Xi’an logistics hub access to move Lao goods toward Europe.

Energy Security & Transit: Ukraine’s drone campaign is hitting the “repair and logistics” side of the CPC oil system, with a strike on the Nefrit service vessel in Sochi putting scheduled works in limbo and raising uncertainty for Kazakhstan-linked crude loading. Policy & Regulation: Kazakhstan introduced a temporary apple import ban (Sept 3–Dec 31, 2026) to protect domestic producers, with transit shipments allowed. Industrial Finance: The EBRD is lending up to €25m to Kazakhstan’s TBF Holding Group (TradeAgra) for seasonal working capital to expand agricultural procurement, processing, storage and exports, backed by a €500k agrifood grant. Gas Strategy: Qazaqgaz says natural gas could become as strategic as oil, aiming to build a national gas resource base and expand into production and marketing. Governance & Culture: President Tokayev set new priorities for culture and the information space, tasking the ministry to modernize legislation for digital realities and strengthen heritage promotion abroad. SCO Momentum: At the Bishkek SCO summit, members pushed connectivity, energy security, economic cooperation and AI/digital agendas, while Kazakhstan also discussed expanding energy transit and logistics links with Azerbaijan. Trade & Supply Chains: Kazakhstan’s role in the Middle Corridor keeps growing as Austria-Kazakh connectivity talks focus on turning declarations into workable, investor-ready logistics.