AGP Executive Report

Arbitration & Trade Disputes: The International Dispute Resolution Institute (IDI) signed an MoU with China’s Karamay Arbitration Commission (KAC) to handle civil and commercial disputes tied to trade, investment, construction and energy—an effort to deepen Belt and Road legal cooperation. Energy & Field Upgrades: Ampo will supply 85 high-pressure on-off ball valves for Karachaganak field upgrade projects, with manufacturing at its Atyrau facility supporting gas reinjection and trunkline expansion. Regional Investment Push (Atyrau): Authorities in Atyrau reviewed major industrial projects and diversification plans to attract billions in new investment, highlighting the region’s dominance in oil and gas output and a shift toward petrochemicals, logistics, manufacturing and renewables. China Partnership (Jiangsu): Kazakhstan and China’s Jiangsu Province moved to expand industrial, production-localization and logistics cooperation, including the opening of a Central Asia-Jiangsu Center in Astana. EU Trade Focus (Sweden): Kazakhstan is working to boost non-commodity exports to Sweden and the EU by cutting technical barriers, improving customs and logistics, and linking exporters with QazTrade and Swedish trade bodies. Mining & Metals Spotlight: Kazakhstan ranked among the world’s top gold producers, with gold mining investment activity rising sharply and new deposits added to the national register. Industrial Cooperation (Saudi): Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia discussed expanding industrial and mining collaboration focused on strategic minerals and value-chain partnerships. Digital/Blockchain Ecosystem: Alatau City signed with the Solana Foundation to build a blockchain innovation zone, aiming to deploy digital infrastructure, support startups and train local talent.

EU-India Trade Shock: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal would add unnamed India-based firms, potentially complicating ratification of a major EU–India trade deal. Sweden Export Push: Kazakhstan is working to boost non-commodity exports to Sweden and the EU by cutting technical barriers, improving logistics and customs, and linking exporters with QazTrade and Business Sweden. Industrial Engineering Link: Talks with Sweden also highlighted a cooperation memorandum between Hyundai Trans Almaty and the Volvo Group, aimed at strengthening Kazakhstan’s mechanical engineering and creating new production capacity. China Connectivity: Astana opened a Jiangsu Province Center for Central Asia, pitching joint projects in industry, agricultural processing, petrochemicals and digital tech as bilateral trade hits record levels. Mining & Critical Minerals: Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia discussed expanding industrial and mining cooperation, focusing on strategic minerals, value-chain partnerships, and technology exchange. U.S. Critical Minerals Dialogue: The U.S. held its first in-person Critical Minerals Dialogue with Central Asian states in Astana, pushing financing and implementation for projects. Astana Logistics & Trade: Kazakhstan also positioned itself as a key Eurasian trade and logistics link, with efforts to deepen regional connectivity.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal would add entities based in India and also lists firms tied to Kazakhstan among 50 targeted companies, raising uncertainty for an EU-India trade deal that needs unanimous approval across 27 member states. Digital Economy: Alatau City signed a memorandum with the Solana Foundation in Hong Kong to bring blockchain infrastructure, startup support, and workforce training to Kazakhstan’s planned innovation hub. Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. held its first in-person Critical Minerals Dialogue with Central Asian states in Astana, pushing implementation of financing and partnerships as Washington seeks to reduce dependence on China-controlled supply chains. Mining & Industry Ties: Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan discussed expanding industrial and mining cooperation in Astana, with emphasis on strategic minerals, value-chain collaboration, and private-sector projects. Food Processing Investment: Iran’s Solico plans a major cheese plant in Kazakhstan’s Almaty region (155,000 tons/year), with construction underway and commissioning targeted for 2029. Trade Cooperation: Kazakhstan and Sweden moved toward a bilateral commission to boost trade, industrial cooperation, and investment, including better market access and fewer trade barriers. Jobs & Wages Plan: Kazakhstan’s 2026–2029 plan targets wage gaps and aims to create up to 240,000 quality jobs annually through training, microloans, and dual education agreements.

EU Sanctions Shock: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal would add entities based in India and also lists firms tied to Kazakhstan and other countries, raising uncertainty for an EU–India trade deal that both sides are trying to ratify by mid-July. Competition Policy in the Region: Kazakhstan joined a Turkic States competition forum in Shusha, where watchdogs from Kazakhstan and other OTS members discussed regional cooperation on fair markets. Critical Minerals Push: The U.S. held its first in-person Central Asia Critical Minerals Dialogue in Astana, signaling a push to reduce dependence on China and support new projects with Kazakhstan. Mining & Processing Momentum: Kazakhstan highlighted its titanium strength (20% of the global aerospace market) and unveiled plans for further capacity and upgrades, while also advancing Kashagan gas processing construction toward a 2.5 bcm/year facility. Jobs & Skills Plan: Kazakhstan’s 2026–2029 reform package targets up to 240,000 quality jobs annually via wage measures, dual education deals, and rural microloans. Water Security for Industry: Kazakhstan and France continued work on Lake Balkhash conservation, focusing on climate impacts, glacier runoff, and digital tools for basin planning. Trade & Logistics: Kazakhstan’s transport sector grew in early 2026, with freight volumes up but freight turnover down, pointing to efficiency and route challenges.

EU–India Sanctions Shock: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal would add 50 firms tied to India (and also Kazakhstan among others), raising uncertainty for an EU–India trade deal that needs unanimous approval by July 15. Water Security & Industry: Kazakhstan and France are advancing a long-term plan to protect Lake Balkhash, with work spanning hydrology, glacier runoff, water allocation modeling, and digital tools for basin management. Jobs & Skills: A government plan aims to create up to 240,000 quality jobs annually via wage-gap fixes, dual education deals, rural microloans, and support for self-employment. Mining & Critical Minerals: Kazakhstan will invest about $470mn in geological exploration in 2026–2028, while Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan expand subsoil cooperation; U.S. investors are increasingly focused on processing and supply-chain steps, not just extraction. Metals & Aerospace: Kazakhstan’s titanium output is set to grow, with officials citing a 20% share of the global aerospace market. Agro-Processing Push: Solico plans a major cheese plant in Kazakhstan (155,000 tons/year), supporting jobs and local dairy supply. Energy & Transport: Kashagan’s gas processing plant moves forward (2.5 bcm/year), and Kazakhstan’s transport sector shows 8.4% growth since Jan 2026. Regional Trade: Kazakhstan–EU cooperation deepens as trade and investment dialogue expands beyond energy into critical raw materials and connectivity.

Oil & Pipelines: CPC oil exports from Kazakhstan hit a record 1.83 million bpd in May (7.187m tons), helped by Tengiz output recovery after maintenance, and CPC raised its June CPC Blend export plan to about 1.7m bpd. Mining & Critical Minerals: Kazakhstan used the AMM Congress to push a downstream, processing-led critical minerals strategy, while U.S. officials said Washington is moving from talks to execution via supply-chain and processing support. U.S.-Kazakhstan Dealmaking: A U.S.–Kazakhstan country roundtable at AMM focused on turning the minerals agenda into projects, investment, offtake deals, and resilient supply chains. Renewables & Grid Risk: The EDB warns Central Asia’s renewable buildout could raise electricity costs if grid, storage, and market reforms lag behind. Water Security: Kazakhstan and France are advancing a long-term master plan to protect Lake Balkhash, with a final strategy expected by year-end. Agriculture Exports: Kazakhstan’s grain and flour exports rose 13% year on year to 12.2m tons (Sep 2025–Mar 2026), with gains to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Afghanistan. Carbon Finance: Solis Capital launched a Central Asia-focused carbon stream financing vehicle for high-integrity voluntary credits. Aviation Regulation: A Kyrgyz airline, Moalem Aviation, reportedly lost its AOC and had aircraft seized, highlighting licensing fragility in the region.

Aviation Shock: Kyrgyz carrier Moalem Aviation has lost its Air Operator’s Certificate, with four aircraft seized and all flights cancelled, underscoring how quickly financial stress can ground operations. Critical Minerals Push: At Astana Mining & Metallurgy Congress, Kazakhstan used the U.S. and C5+1 dialogue to press for real projects in rare earths and processing—not just extraction—while the U.S. signaled a shift from talks to execution. Mining & Industry Scale-Up: Prime Minister Bektenov framed critical minerals as the backbone of a higher-value industrial era, as 70 companies and 1,500 delegates showcased new mining tech and automation in Astana. Rare Earth Deal: Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia signed an AMM MOU to cooperate across the mining value chain, with a focus on rare earths and higher value-added production. Energy & Grid Risk: A new EDB warning says Central Asia’s renewable boom (especially solar) could raise electricity costs unless grid upgrades, storage, and market reforms keep pace. Food & Trade Flows: Kazakhstan’s grain and flour exports rose 13% to 12.2m tonnes (Sep 2025–Mar 2026), with bigger shipments to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. Water Security: Kazakhstan and France advanced a master plan to preserve Lake Balkhash amid climate-driven water stress. Fuel Stability: Kazakhstan’s energy minister said there’s no expected gasoline shortage, citing reserves for about 36 days despite disruptions in Russia. EU Supply-Chain Pressure: Reports say the EU is considering tougher rules to avoid single-supplier dependence, which could favor Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan if they move beyond raw exports. Sports Science Gap: Kyrgyzstan lacks an anti-doping lab and sends samples to Kazakhstan, highlighting a regional capacity gap.

EU Supply-Chain Shift: The European Commission is weighing tougher rules for sensitive sectors, pushing firms to avoid single-source dependence and keep at least three suppliers—an approach aimed at reducing exposure to China’s rare-earth export limits and other strategic-material risks, which could open doors for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan if they can offer stable processing and logistics. C5+1 Critical Minerals: Kazakhstan’s PM Olzhas Bektenov used the Astana Mining & Metallurgy Congress to stress that critical minerals underpin the next industrial era, while Kazakhstan plans about $470m in geological exploration (2026–2028) and has digitized 4.6m units of primary geological data. Water & Irrigation Investment: Kazakhstan invested 676.7bn tenge in the water sector over two years, concreted 1,500 km of canals, and saved 874m cubic meters via water-saving tech, with irrigation expansion accelerating toward 1.3m ha by 2030. Industrial Deep-Processing: The government says Kazakhstan is shifting from raw exports to deep processing and high value-added output, with new capacity already commissioned in metals and related products. Bilateral Industry Deals: Kazakhstan and South Korea reaffirmed plans to deepen industrial and nuclear cooperation, while Kazakhstan–Saudi talks focused on mining value chains and critical minerals. Offshore Fleet Upgrade: Caspian Offshore Construction bought an AHTS vessel (Caspian Yili) to expand offshore marine services, targeting international clients from Q4 2026. Agribusiness & Exports: Kazakhstan’s push to expand food exports to Asia continues alongside broader regional trade momentum.

Logistics & Trade Links: Emirates SkyCargo will start a weekly Boeing 777F freighter service to Almaty from June 16, adding 100+ tonnes weekly capacity via Dubai. Transport Infrastructure: Kazakhstan Temir Zholy says Kuryk (Kazakhstan) and Makhachkala (Russia) will run a vehicle ferry service to attract cargo flows from China and Central Asia. Digital Transit: Kazakhstan is pushing more online tools for transit to cut border delays and speed electronic document exchange across China–Central Asia–Caspian–Europe routes. Energy & Exports: Kazakhstan’s energy minister says talks are underway to raise Russian gas transit to Uzbekistan (with infrastructure readiness key), while Kazakhstan is also weighing options to boost oil exports amid Strait of Hormuz risks. Mining & Production: Central Asia Metals reports solid H1 momentum, with Kounrad copper and Sasa zinc/lead output tracking guidance. Offshore Services: Caspian Offshore Construction bought its first SPA90 AHTS vessel for Caspian operations, expanding offshore construction and subsea support capacity. Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. opened a C5+1 critical minerals dialogue in Astana, focusing on exploration, processing, and supply chains. Green Growth & Agribusiness: Kazakhstan and the Netherlands agreed to advance joint projects worth €160m, with agri-food, food industry and logistics firms in the delegation. Regional Water Security: Central Asia launched the GEF CAWLN water–land programme in Uzbekistan to tackle shrinking rivers and land degradation. EU Sanctions Watch: The EU proposed its 21st Russia sanctions package, including export controls that could affect firms linked to Kazakhstan.

Energy Transit: Kazakhstan says it’s ready to boost Russian gas transit to Uzbekistan, with last year’s flow at 4+ bcm to Uzbekistan and ~500 mln cubic meters to Kyrgyzstan; unofficial plans point to up to 11 bcm, but talks are still ongoing. Sanctions Pressure: The EU announced a 21st Russia sanctions package that includes a temporary freeze on the Russian oil price cap and new listings targeting banks, drone-related firms, and export controls on materials like nickel powders and high-performance alloys—explicitly naming Kazakhstan among countries tied to the measures. Health Policy: Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Health plans tighter control over dispensing antibacterial drugs, aiming to curb antibiotic resistance driven by overuse and easy access without prescriptions, including online. Agriculture & Trade Controls: Kyrgyzstan returned 8.6 tons of pepper to Kazakhstan after certificate discrepancies were found at a phytosanitary post. Mining & Metals: Arras Minerals shares jumped 38% after drilling results at Kazakhstan’s Elemes Project reported copper-gold grades including 935.9m at 0.71% CuEq. Critical Minerals & Pharma: Guangzhou Pharma expands in Central Asia, including a Kazakhstan partnership with Kolon Pharma to produce anti-tumor API ingredients and an agreement with Samruk-Kazyna for industrial investment and logistics cooperation. Biotech for Food Security: Kazakhstan and China completed field trials of a fungal biopesticide against Moroccan locusts in Turkestan, testing Metarhizium anisopliae as a lower-impact alternative. Regional Water Security: GEF launched the CAWLN water-land program across Central Asia, bringing Kazakhstan and neighbors into a coordinated push to manage stressed river basins and degraded lands.

Foreign Investment Shift: China has overtaken Russia as Central Asia’s top direct foreign investor, with cumulative Chinese investment in the region topping $35bn in 2025, led by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Antibiotics Control: Kazakhstan’s Health Ministry plans tighter oversight of antibacterial dispensing to curb antimicrobial resistance, targeting issues like over-the-counter sales and illegal drug circulation. Trade Compliance: Kyrgyzstan returned 8.6 tons of pepper to Kazakhstan after certificate discrepancies were found at a phytosanitary post. EU Sanctions Pressure: The EU proposed a 21st Russia sanctions package that could hit drone-related supply chains and metals/alloys exports, with Kazakhstan among countries where firms may face new export controls. Mining & Drilling: Arras Minerals surged 38% after Kazakhstan porphyry drilling results at the Elemes project. Agri Innovation: Kazakh and Chinese scientists completed field trials of a biopesticide using Metarhizium fungus to fight Moroccan locusts. Tourism Revenue: Kazakhstan’s tourism generated over $1.3bn in tax revenue in 2025, with foreign spending up and ecotourism and medical tourism expanding. China–Kazakhstan Business: Guangzhou Pharma is expanding in Central Asia via partnerships including Kazakhstan’s Kolon Pharma and cooperation with Samruk-Kazyna. Logistics & Connectivity: Kazakhstan–China talks highlighted Shenzhen know-how for Alatau City, while North–South corridor capacity through Azerbaijan was increased fivefold, boosting regional freight flows.

Nuclear & Energy Deals: Kazakhstan and Shell signed a memorandum to digitize and analyze hydrocarbon geological archives, launching a pilot GIS platform that will unify dispersed datasets and use AI to speed up exploration decisions. Nuclear Cooperation: Kazakhstan and South Korea held talks on expanding nuclear energy ties, with a draft MoU expected to cover advanced reactor tech, workforce training, and scientific collaboration, including possible SMR cooperation. Health & Social Impact: Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Healthcare says infant mortality has fallen 7.5 times since independence, supported by “Children of Kazakhstan” (2026–2030), higher pediatric funding, and “First 1001 Days” early-intervention programs. Agriculture Exports: Kazakhstan gained Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD)-free status from WOAH, a move aimed at boosting livestock export access and market opportunities. Oil Market Reality Check: OPEC+ agreed to raise July output quotas by 188,000 bpd, including Kazakhstan’s share, but the Strait of Hormuz blockade may keep the real market impact limited. Regional Connectivity: The modernized Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway was commissioned, pushing the Middle Corridor into a new phase of Eurasian freight capacity growth. Trade & Finance: A Baku summit on global financial integration for Turkic states drew Kazakhstan-linked banking partners and Visa as a global partner.

Forced-Labor Tariffs: The U.S. USTR proposed new Section 301 duties of 10%–12.5% on imports from 60 economies over alleged failures to block forced-labor goods, with comments due early July—Kazakhstan exporters should check product exposure and exemptions. Oil Market Shock: OPEC+ agreed to raise July output by 188,000 bpd, including Kazakhstan’s +10,000 bpd, but analysts warn the Strait of Hormuz blockade means the real supply impact may be limited. Energy Cooperation: Kazakhstan and Shell signed an MoU to digitize and unify hydrocarbon geological archives via a GIS pilot, using AI to improve exploration decisions. Nuclear Push: Kazakhstan and South Korea advanced talks on nuclear cooperation, including possible SMR collaboration and a draft memorandum. Agri Export Boost: Kazakhstan received FMD-free status, a move aimed at expanding livestock export access. Water & Industry: Kazakhstan sent 6.16 bcm of water into the Caspian since January, while oilseed-processing exports hit $963m over four years, showing continued value-add momentum. Regional Connectivity: Experts say the Middle Corridor is entering a strategic development phase, with workforce and logistics capacity highlighted.

Oil Markets: Brent jumped above $97 and WTI rose over 4% after Iran’s attacks on Israel and the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively blocked, keeping global supply tight. Energy Policy: OPEC+ approved a fourth straight July output quota hike (+188,000 bpd) including Kazakhstan, but analysts say it may be mostly symbolic while Hormuz disruptions limit real barrels. Gas & Engineering: Hyundai Engineering won a Kazakhstan gas processing plant award at Karachaganak, targeting 5 bcm/year of raw gas, with engineering and procurement led by Hyundai and SICIM joining as consortium partner. Finance & Capital Markets: HKEX signed MoUs with Kazakhstan’s AIFC and AIX to boost Central Asia connectivity. AI Infrastructure Risk: Freedom Holding Corp. flagged major risks for its “Data Center Valley” AI project in Kazakhstan, with preliminary investment estimates around $2bn and feasibility still underway. Automotive Aftermarket: Foxwell will showcase diagnostic tools at Automechanika Astana 2026 (June 10–12), pushing multi-brand workshop solutions across Central Asia. Agriculture Land Use: Kazakhstan is shifting agricultural land structure toward oilseeds, with oilseeds now 18% of farmland (up from 11.7% three years ago).

OPEC+ Oil Quotas: OPEC+ ministers agreed to lift July oil output targets by 188,000 bpd, including Kazakhstan’s quota increase, but analysts say the move is mostly symbolic while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and physical barrels are still constrained. Agriculture Land Shift: Kazakhstan is changing agricultural land structure toward oilseeds: oilseeds now cover 4.3 million hectares (18% of farmland) versus 11.7% three years ago, as the government pushes higher sunflower oil exports. Kazakhstan–Hong Kong Trade Push: Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee led a major trade delegation to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, signing 96 agreements worth over $1.65bn, with talks covering customs facilitation, double-tax deals, and investment protection. Regional Logistics Angle: A Hong Kong airport official said Central Asia could become a key logistics terminal linking Asia and Europe as Middle East and Russia routes face disruption. Energy Infrastructure Context: Kazakhstan’s nuclear cooperation with Russia remains in focus, with reporting pointing to a first modern plant plan led by Rosatom.

Energy & Industry Diplomacy: South Korea’s Industry Minister Kim Jung Kwan plans a Kazakhstan-focused trip plus talks in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, aiming to secure crude and LNG supplies and expand cooperation on critical minerals, digital tech and environmentally friendly industries, then to the Czech Republic to review progress on the Dukovany nuclear project. Middle Corridor & Logistics: Hong Kong’s airport authority chief says Central Asia could become a “terminal” between Asia and Europe, with cargo volumes between Hong Kong and the region up nearly fivefold year-on-year, while Hong Kong’s leadership signs dozens of deals to deepen trade, finance and innovation links. Oil Market Watch: OPEC+ meets to consider higher quotas after the Iran war disrupted Hormuz shipments; analysts note only a handful of members, including Kazakhstan, have the capacity to raise output, so price relief may be limited. Security Cooperation: Pakistan’s interior minister signed pacts with Russia on curbing illegal immigration and narcotics trafficking, while also discussing Afghanistan-linked terrorist and drug threats with regional counterparts including Kazakhstan. AI & Human Capital: Kazakhstan hosted the “AI Leaders 2026” graduation in Astana, bringing 800+ executives from 150+ organizations across nine countries. Agriculture Exports: Kazakhstan and Hong Kong partners move to boost soy exports across Asia via logistics and forward-contract tools, including seed support for local production. Environment: UNEP warns Caspian Sea levels could drop sharply over 50 years, threatening biodiversity and port/shipping activity across Kazakhstan and other coastal states.