AGP Executive Report

Middle Corridor Logistics: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia are working on a unified long-term tariff model for the Middle Corridor, alongside port and fleet upgrades like Caspian dredging and Kuryk modernization. Iran Gateway Trade: Kazakhstan plans a private-financed cargo transshipment terminal at Iran’s Bandar Abbas (15 hectares) to speed exports to India, East Africa, the Gulf and Southeast Asia, with talks aimed at easing sanctions-linked bans on transit through Iran. Energy Disruption & Supply Security: After Ukraine struck Russia’s Orenburg gas processing, Kazakhstan cut Karachaganak output by 25% (from 34,000 to 25,000 tons/day) while saying domestic gas delivery remains stable; separately, Kazakhstan’s refinery maintenance at Atyrau is set to protect domestic fuel stocks. Fuel Market Pressure: Reuters reports Russia is discussing importing about 50,000 tons of AI-92 gasoline from Kazakhstan, while Astana says no official request has been received; Kazakhstan is also considering aviation fuel imports from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and China. Mining Tech Leap: ERG’s Aluminium of Kazakhstan launched the world’s first vertical bauxite mining project using rotary drilling, aiming to cut overburden and improve ore precision. Digital Infrastructure: Kazakhstan’s Data Center Valley push adds momentum as a 2027 Ekibastuz data processing center (125 MW) is set to open, with further expansion planned. Trade Push with China: Kazakhstan and China reaffirm plans to nearly double trade to $100 billion, driven by logistics and industrial cooperation. Hydropower Build: Kyrgyzstan began the Kazarman hydro cascade (912 MW, $3bn) to reduce electricity import dependence.

Border & Logistics Modernization: Kazakhstan is reconstructing 37 border crossing points, adding new inspection/monitoring complexes and improving waiting areas, while rolling out the unified “E-Zholdar” road information system to cut corridor bottlenecks. EU Connectivity & Trade: Brussels and Astana agreed to deepen their strategic partnership, with focus on critical raw materials, energy, transport, digitalization and emerging tech under the EU’s Global Gateway push, including Trans-Caspian corridor cooperation. Water Security & Industry Stability: Kazakhstan’s Senate ratified an agreement with Uzbekistan on joint management of transboundary water resources, aimed at protecting Syrdarya basin supplies that underpin agriculture and regional growth. Digital Rail Upgrade: Starlink satellite internet is being deployed on the Astana–Semey–Dostyk rail route to expand connectivity for passengers and enable digital services in remote sections. Energy & Fuel Flows: Russia is in talks to import about 50,000 tons of AI-92 gasoline from Kazakhstan as refinery outages and drone strikes squeeze domestic supply. Food Systems Cooperation: Kazakhstan and Thailand signed a 2027–2028 action plan covering agriculture/food industry, transport/logistics, green energy, strategic minerals and tourism. AI Supply Chains: Kazakhstan joined 35 nations signing the US-led Pax Silica “AI opportunity” statement, backing trusted and resilient supply chains for AI goods. Climate Impact on Industry: A historic heatwave hit Kazakhstan, damaging roads and raising wildfire and drought risks, with concrete pavement deformation reported on key highways.

AI Supply Chain Diplomacy: The US-led Pax Silica initiative added more countries to its AI technology-supply push, with Kazakhstan among the signatories as Washington frames it as opportunity over restriction. Rail Digitalization: Kazakhstan rolled out Starlink satellite internet along the Astana–Semey–Dostyk rail route to bring connectivity to remote sections, using Kaztechnology and Aray Trans KZ. Trade Boost with China: Kazakhstan and China discussed scaling bilateral trade toward $100bn, citing record 2025 turnover and strong 2026 growth, with localization interest in expo-backed sectors like agrochemicals and drones. Regional Finance for Industry: The EDB plans $13.5bn in member-state investments for 2027–2031, prioritizing transport/logistics, food security, and high-value industrial projects; the EEC and EDB also signed a cooperation memo to support industry and agro-industrial initiatives plus AI use. Banking Expansion: Kaspi.kz received Turkish regulator approval to acquire Rabobank A.Ş., targeting a July 2026 close and expanding digital payments and fintech services in Turkey. Middle Corridor Logistics: Kazakhstan began Aktau port dredging to raise TITR capacity, with works set to start in late July and boost port draft to 6–7 meters, aiming to lift annual throughput from 6m to 10m tons by 2028. Energy Pressure: Russia is negotiating to buy about 50,000 tons of AI-92 gasoline from Kazakhstan amid its domestic fuel squeeze. Agri-Food Trade Controls: Kyrgyzstan returned 8.5 tons of Kazakh melons after phytosanitary document violations, tightening border compliance. Smart Agriculture in Atyrau: Atyrau Oil and Gas University will host a Zero-Carbon Smart Agriculture Demonstration Park with AIKO, combining solar, AI management, and water-saving farming tech.

Fuel Supply Crunch: Russia is reportedly in talks with Kazakhstan to import about 50,000 tonnes of AI-92 gasoline after Ukrainian drone strikes forced refinery shutdowns, cutting Russian output by around 25% y/y; Kazakhstan’s energy minister says Astana hasn’t received an official request, though planned maintenance at Atyrau refinery (June 26–July 20) could tighten local reserves. Transport & Ports: Kazakhstan is pushing Aktau Port expansion—dredging starts in the second half of July with a Chinese contractor, aiming to lift draft depth to 6–7 meters and raise Trans-Caspian International Transport Route capacity to 10m tonnes by 2028. Trade Flows: Chinese cargo transit through Kazakhstan hit a record 20.2m tonnes in 2025 (+32% y/y), helped by rail capacity upgrades like the second Dostyk–Moyynty line. Digital Energy: Kazakhstan and UNDP are preparing a demand-driven digital smart grid project to boost power-system efficiency and cybersecurity. Agri-Water Modernization: 283 irrigation canals are set for automation in 2026, including major work across Turkestan, Zhambyl and Almaty. Finance & Industry Support: Baiterek secured a $780m EU-backed loan package for road and logistics upgrades and signed deals to develop agricultural machinery manufacturing. AI Infrastructure Push: SuperX AI Technology discussed a phased 1GW AI computing park with Kazakhstan’s PM as the country builds sovereign digital capacity. Banking: S&P upgraded Freedom Holding subsidiaries in Kazakhstan to “BB-” with stable outlooks, citing improved risk management.

Trade & Legal Risk: A U.S. Court of International Trade ordered the Commerce Department to redo its ferrosilicon dumping duty case involving Kazakhstan, after concerns that some shipments may have been routed via Canada. Energy Supply Shock: Russia is negotiating to import about 50,000 tons of AI-92 gasoline from Kazakhstan as refinery downtime cuts output, while Kazakhstan also rerouted gas logistics after disruption at Russia’s Orenburg processing plant. Middle Corridor Push: Kazakhstan, Georgia and Azerbaijan are working on a unified long-term tariff model for the Middle Corridor, alongside port and dredging plans; separately, CHEC is gearing up for Aktau Port dredging to boost TITR capacity by end-2026. EU Connectivity Funding: The European Commission launched a Connectivity Agenda Platform, aiming to mobilize up to €2bn for transport, border and trade-facilitation projects across the Black Sea–South Caucasus–Central Asia corridor, with Kazakhstan in the mix. Aviation & Logistics: Air Astana placed Kazakhstan’s biggest-ever Airbus order (up to 50 A320neo aircraft), and ASL Airlines Belgium launched a Liege–Karaganda freighter route. Digital Infrastructure: SuperX is considering a Kazakhstan AI data center cluster up to 1 GW, discussed with PM Bektenov at Summer Davos.

EU-Kazakhstan Deal Push: President Tokayev’s Brussels talks with EU leaders António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen focused on practical cooperation: Trans-Caspian connectivity, critical raw materials, energy, digitalization, agriculture, and visa facilitation/readmission, with a new joint statement and a Horizontal Aviation Agreement plus steps toward easier short-stay travel. Middle Corridor Logistics: Kazakhstan plans to boost the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route by modernizing Aktau Port—large-scale dredging starts in late July, targeting higher annual cargo capacity by 2028. Transport Finance: The EBRD is set to provide up to €230m (with AIIB co-financing) for road upgrades in western Kazakhstan to strengthen East-West corridor links. Belgium Cooperation: Tokayev met Belgium PM Bart de Wever, highlighting growing trade and investment and exploring joint projects in transport/logistics, critical minerals, petrochemicals, agriculture, and digital transformation. Digital & AI Governance: Kazakhstan showcased its digital transformation and AI-Native Government model at a UN event, including Smart Data Ukimet and eGov.GPT, as well as plans for further AI governance. Mining & Trade Deals: Kazakhstan signed an $18.88m zinc ore supply agreement with an Afghan company for Kazzinc feedstock, while Lindian Resources moved rare-earth sales operations to a Singapore hub to manage international marketing and logistics. Climate & Industry Impact: Kazakhstan reported 2.3m tons of pollutant emissions to the atmosphere in 2025, and EU talks also tied climate finance and adaptation priorities to the broader economic agenda.

EU-Kazakhstan Strategic Push: President Tokayev met EU leaders in Brussels and the sides signed a joint strategic declaration plus deals on connectivity (including aviation), critical raw materials, energy, transport, digitalisation and emerging tech—aiming to turn Kazakhstan’s “gateway” role into jobs and trade. Middle Corridor Funding: Kazakhstan and European partners unveiled a $462m package of transport documents, while the EBRD backed a 234km Aktobe–Karabutak–Ulgaisyn highway upgrade (four-lane Category I) to boost the Western Europe–Western China corridor. Science & AI Cooperation: Kazakhstan signed EU agreements on research, innovation, AI and higher education, including a mirror lab with Ghent University and joint work on critical materials and sustainable metallurgy. China Ties & Trade: Chinese Premier Li Qiang met Kazakhstan PM Bektenov in Dalian, stressing expanded trade, energy/minerals cooperation and digital fields like AI and smart cities; Kazakhstan–China trade hit record levels. Agri-Food Modernisation: Kazakhstan and the Netherlands signed €160m (about $182m) agri-food and logistics agreements at GreenTech Amsterdam, including seed production and export logistics. Green Mobility: Green SM launched an all-electric ride-hailing service in Almaty, marking its first Central Asia market entry. Caspian Fisheries: Atyrau sturgeon hatchery released over 1m juvenile sturgeon into the Ural River as part of Caspian biodiversity restoration.

Kazakhstan-EU Push: President Tokayev says the Kazakhstan–EU partnership is “more important than ever,” with priorities on resilience, connectivity (including the Middle Corridor), critical raw materials, energy, and new citizen opportunities as he heads to Brussels. Middle Corridor Logistics: A Brussels-linked Kazakhstan logistics conference highlights plans to boost TITR capacity, modernize rail/ports/terminals, and digitize Eurasian supply chains. Afghanistan Trade & Industry: Astana reiterates “pragmatic engagement without recognition” while expanding practical ties; Kazakhstan opens a Kabul trade house (Herat-based expansion) and discusses importing Afghan zinc ore for processing in Kazakh facilities. Mining Talks: Kazakhstan and Afghanistan focus on aquamarine and zinc cooperation, with Kazakh firms weighing ore processing and modernization support. Security Tech for Industry: Kazakhstan’s Interior Ministry opens a drone operator training lab to scale unmanned aerial use in policing, from reconnaissance to search-and-rescue. Household Debt Pressure: A survey finds 72.7% of Kazakhstani residents have loans/borrowings, with many spending over half their income on repayments—raising pressure on consumer demand. Regional Water-Energy Coordination: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan align summer water and power schedules to protect electricity stability during peak irrigation months. Caspian Environmental Risk: Reports warn the Caspian Sea is shrinking fast, with seal die-offs tied to climate, pollution, and reduced inflows—an issue for fisheries and coastal industries.

Kazakhstan–Afghanistan Trade & Industry: Astana opened a new Kazakhstan trade house in Kabul, with permanent exhibition space for food, everyday goods, auto showrooms and a pharma warehouse, plus a zinc-ore supply contract tied to ShalkiyaZinc. Mining & Processing: Deputy PM Serik Zhumangarin said Kazakhstan wants to process Afghan technical aquamarine and zinc ore domestically, and discussed modernizing a nitrogen plant in Mazar-i-Sharif. Water & Agriculture Capacity: Kazakhstan and Kabul agreed to set up a water resources management and irrigation center at Kabul University to train specialists and drive sustainable agriculture research. EU Connectivity & Minerals: President Tokayev’s Brussels push centers on resilience, connectivity (including Middle Corridor upgrades) and critical raw materials, with business talks on transport, digital logistics and investment. Security Tech for Industry: The Interior Ministry opened a drone operator training lab for police, supporting reconnaissance, search-and-rescue and inspections in hard-to-reach areas. Finance & Credit: Fitch affirmed Kazakhstan’s BBB sovereign rating with a stable outlook, citing strong external buffers and low government debt. AI Infrastructure Deals: Kazakhstan signed agreements with NVIDIA and Firebird worth up to $10bn for its Data Center Valley. Skills for Water Sector: New college programs will train hydrologists and hydraulic engineers, expanding Kazakhstan’s water-industry workforce.

Rare Earths Readiness: Lindian Resources says its Kangankunde rare earths project in Malawi is moving into the final run-up to production, with access to the top of the deposit, Stage 1 pit/haul road finished, explosives approvals secured, and the first blast pattern drilling underway; commissioning is still targeted for October 2026 and first production for Q4 2026. EU Partnership Push: As President Tokayev visits Brussels, civil society groups urge the EU to keep human-rights concerns central while Kazakhstan expands cooperation with its biggest trade and investment partner. Trade Mix vs Investment: Kazakhstan’s trade remains commodity-led, but new data show investment is increasingly flowing into manufacturing, energy infrastructure, transport, and agriculture. Water-Energy Coordination: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan met in Bishkek to coordinate water and power operations for the 2026–2027 autumn-winter and growing seasons, including joint actions around the Toktogul Reservoir and mutual electricity supplies. Afghanistan Economic Drive: Kazakhstan and Afghanistan are pushing toward a $3bn trade target, with Kazakh firms offering food, construction materials, medicines, and industrial equipment, while private-sector deals in Kabul cover imports and banking cooperation. AI Infrastructure Deal: Kazakhstan signed agreements with Firebird and Nvidia-backed plans for a Data Center Valley, with the first phase aiming at $5bn investment and commercial operations expected in 2027. Logistics Integrity Claims: A former KTZ official alleges unofficial fees on transit containers and claims cash is stored in an Astana property, raising new questions about rail logistics and shadow collections on the Eurasian route.

Afghanistan Trade Push: Kazakhstan and Afghanistan are stepping up economic ties after a high-level Kabul visit, with both sides targeting $3 billion in bilateral trade; the forum drew 50+ Kazakh companies across agro-industry, engineering, chemicals and IT, and officials discussed removing logistics and certification barriers plus expanding e-commerce and joint production. Private-Sector Deals: Afghan and Kazakh businesses signed 25 MoUs covering medicines, wheat/flour, cooking oil, potatoes and banking cooperation, as Taliban authorities seek alternative routes amid border disruptions. Humanitarian Support: Kazakhstan delivered 318.8 tons of aid to Afghanistan and launched a week-long “Days of Kazakh Medicine” mission with specialists for consultations and training. AI Infrastructure Investment: Kazakhstan signed agreements with Firebird for an AI Data Center Valley that could attract up to $10 billion, with a first $5 billion phase and commercial operations planned from 2027. Energy Market Security: Prime Minister Bektenov ordered tighter border controls to curb illegal fuel exports and prevent shortages, citing stable domestic refinery output and inventories.

AI Infrastructure Deal: Kazakhstan signed a $10B AI infrastructure package with Firebird and Nvidia support, including a Data Center Valley plan with $5B in the first phase and commercial operations at a 125MW site expected in 2027. Afghanistan Trade Push: In Kabul, Kazakh and Afghan businesses signed 25 MoUs and agreements across food, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, banking, and industrial goods, with both sides targeting $3B bilateral trade and pushing for fewer logistics and certification barriers. Border Fuel Security: Prime Minister Bektenov ordered tighter border controls to curb illegal exports of gasoline, diesel and light distillates, including limits on border crossings and closer monitoring of inventories and demand. Regional Energy Coordination: Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan met in Bishkek to coordinate water and electricity operations for the autumn-winter and growing seasons, signing a protocol on joint management of shared resources. Heritage & Culture: Archaeologists reported discovery of an ancient Turkic runic inscription in Kazakhstan’s Zhambyl region, adding to research on early Turkic written traditions. Credit Outlook: Fitch affirmed Kazakhstan’s BBB sovereign rating with a Stable Outlook, citing strong external buffers and low government debt.

Fuel Security Crackdown: Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov ordered tighter border controls and limits on road exports of certain petroleum products to prevent illegal shipments and fuel shortages, with ministries tasked to monitor inventories and enforce crossing rules. Afghanistan Trade Push: Kazakhstan and the Taliban opened a Kabul trade and economic forum led by Deputy PM Serik Zhumangarin, targeting $3 billion in bilateral trade and stressing banking, transit, and investment links across agriculture, mining, industry, and logistics. Credit & Macro Outlook: Fitch affirmed Kazakhstan’s BBB sovereign rating with a Stable Outlook, citing strong external buffers, low government debt, and support from higher oil prices; non-resource sectors like transport and manufacturing are expected to keep growing. Agro-Industrial Financing: KazAgroFinance in Baku secured access to up to KZT20bn in Islamic financing for agriculture via ijarah leasing, aimed at machinery purchases and modernization. Energy & Regional Deals: Kazakhstan and Montenegro continued high-level engagement during a historic visit marking 20 years of diplomatic ties, while Kazakhstan also explored new cooperation angles with partners across energy and critical minerals.

Afghanistan–Kazakhstan Trade Push: A high-level Kazakh delegation led by Deputy PM Serik Zhumangarin arrived in Kabul for an Afghan–Kazakh Trade and Economic Forum and a showcase of Kazakh industrial goods, with talks aimed at boosting trade from about $600m toward a $3bn target and expanding cooperation in agriculture, food processing, transit, and investment. Credit & Macro Signals: Fitch affirmed Kazakhstan’s credit rating, citing strong external buffers (National Fund foreign assets and international reserves), low government debt, and expectations that higher 2026 oil prices will support stability while transport, manufacturing, and services back growth. Agri Finance via Islamic Capital: KazAgroFinance signed an MoU with the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector to unlock up to KZT20bn in Islamic financing for Kazakhstan’s agro-producers, focused on machinery, equipment, and production modernization. Energy Costs & Reliability: Kazakhstan plans to raise commercial natural gas prices by 33% from July 1 to fund infrastructure modernization and ensure winter supply amid production disruptions. Eurasian Logistics Momentum: China-Europe Railway Express demand is lifting Central Asian wheat exports, with Kazakh flour reaching Chinese consumers via rail, underscoring how freight links are supporting broader trade growth. Regional Industry Cooperation: Kazakhstan and Mongolia agreed to set up a joint working group on petroleum cooperation and explore crude and product supply studies, while Kazakhstan invited Mongolian mining firms to Mining Week 2026. Digital & Media Policy: Kazakhstan’s SCO media forum focus included adapting domestic media to digital platforms and using AI and multimedia, alongside continued work on regulating online platforms and advertising.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU floated a new Russia-focused sanctions package that could snag firms tied to Kazakhstan, adding uncertainty for an EU-India trade deal and raising compliance pressure across energy, crypto and trade. Energy Pricing & Supply: Kazakhstan will raise commercial natural gas prices by 33% from July 1, citing field disruptions and the need to modernize gas infrastructure for winter reliability. Gas Infrastructure: Kazakhstan is negotiating with Gazprom on a new main pipeline to secure northern supplies and aims to import up to 6.3 bcm of Russian gas annually from 2030. Crypto Mining Regulation: Oman launched “Omanhash,” a mandatory national Bitcoin mining pool for licensed operators—another sign of tighter state control, similar to Kazakhstan’s reporting approach. Transport & Trade Routes: Kazakhstan is considering a grain terminal or container facilities at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port to boost north-south logistics if regional tensions ease. Regional Cooperation: Kazakhstan and Mongolia deepened petroleum and mining cooperation, including a joint working group on petroleum, nuclear energy and geology. Bilateral Industry Links: Kazakhstan and Greece discussed expanding investment in renewables, transport/logistics, metallurgy, agro-industry and digital tech. Agri Imports: Kazakhstan’s fresh fruit imports surged in Jan-Apr 2026, with peaches/nectarines dominated by China.

EU-Trade Shock: The EU’s 21st sanctions package against Russia could complicate an EU-India trade deal, with proposed listings tied to drone and export-control support that include entities in Kazakhstan among other countries. Transit & Logistics: Iran’s roads and urban development minister visited Kazakhstan to push combined rail-road routes from China to Kazakhstan and onward to Iran, Turkey and Europe, aiming to make overland transit faster and more predictable. Bilateral Trade Expansion: Kazakhstan and Mongolia agreed to deepen cooperation across mineral processing, agriculture, manufacturing, trade, transport and logistics, with plans to convene the next intergovernmental commission meeting. Investment & Industry: Kazakhstan’s fixed capital investment rose 7% in Jan–May to 6.74 trillion tenge, led by construction and machinery, while industry attracted the biggest share. Energy Equipment Manufacturing: Kazakhstan and the Czech Republic launched a facility (ZVVZ-KZ) to produce gas-cleaning and industrial filtration equipment for energy plants. Payments Modernization: Kazakhstan will roll out a single interbank QR code for cashless payments from July 19.